With 2025 coming almost to an end, we see global commodities (ex-oil) set for more upside in CY26. Base metals demand supply mismatch with more demand arising from EV demand, AI data centres & supply suffering from adverse shocks such as seen in Copper currently. Copper prices recent rally are also being driven by the large difference between COMEX & LME prices as tariff worries on Copper resurface in CY26 as Trumps looks to revisit them. Aluminum is also looking set for further rally as China inches closer to the 45 million tonne capacity cap, and with issues around aluminium smelters securing commercially viable power contracts. We see Copper testing $12k/t levels by mid CY26 & Aluminium breaching $3k/t levels in early CY26. In precious metals, Gold seems to be forming a higher bottom around $4200/oz levels currently & we see a higher probability of it crossing $4500/oz levels by mid CY26. Both Gold & Silver seem to have found a new set of investors who are driven by recent strong price performance. The stablecoin issuer Tether has become a major new structural buyer of physical gold, now one of the world's largest holders outside of central banks, with reserves reaching approximately 116 metric tons as of Q3 2025. On Silver itself, technically $65 levels look attainable by mid CY26. Silver mine production has been decreasing for the past ten years, especially in Central and South America, due to mine closures, resource depletion and infrastructure challenges. The metal is increasingly used in electric vehicles, for AI components and in photovoltaics. Suffice to say, silver is extremely volatile and any bullish view gets stopped out after a weekly close below 48 levels. On Crude, our bearish view remains intact. Our base case sees Brent falling to $55 levels in Q1CY26 as OPEC+ continues to strive for gaining market share & Trump tries to ensure cheap gasoline prices before the mid 2026 House elections. Any Russia Ukraine peace deal might further pull prices lower, more so for refined products than crude itself. Reason being Russia refined products exports have declined by 0.9mb/d since March 2022 while Russia crude exports have remained nearly flat. Also product margins currently price a higher geopolitical risk premium than crude prices & freight rates may normalize if voyage journeys shorten. In summary, commodities prices except crude are likely to remain well supported & are set for more upside in CY26.
