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Admin iconPlatinum User
103 days ago
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If small cap valuations are so high, how US has a recession.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
103 days ago
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Commodities & Chinese equities can't get up if this continues.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
106 days ago
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US Tech sector remains vulnerable to major outflows as it cornered maximum flows while going up too.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
110 days ago
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US Companies authorized $107 billion in new buybacks last month, the most on record for any August, according to data from Birinyi Associates. The dollar value of announced buybacks was 17% higher than the previous August record, set in 2021. Data from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. suggest companies will supply $6.62 billion worth of daily purchasing power between now and Sept. 13, when they are forced to pause ahead of the third-quarter earnings season.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
110 days ago
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Wake me up when sept ends
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Admin iconPlatinum User
112 days ago
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EU's over reliance on China continues unabated even though US diversified its sourcing of technology intensive goods.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
112 days ago
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Chinese house prices continue to fall freely.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
113 days ago
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Avrg S&P 500 returns are higher towards the end of recession.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
114 days ago
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Welcome to the worst month for equities for past 10years.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
117 days ago
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Corporate buybacks likely to peak soon.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
117 days ago
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Nvidia fails to meet lofty expectations: While the Q2 results (Rev 30 BN USD against analyst avrg at 28.6) were better than estimates, the Q3 guidance (at 32.5BN USD +/- 2% against analyst estimates of 31.9) was just barely matching average mkt estimates. Nvidia historically has given much higher future guidance than estimates which was not the case this time as some analysts were expecting north of 35BN USD too. In addition during the post earnings analyst call, analysts sought more details on the amount of revenue that the new Blackwell chips would deliver and when. Both their CEO & CFO stuck to their promise of billions of dollars in the fourth quarter, refusing to elaborate further.The company acknowledged that there were issues with production, saying that it was making changes to improve its manufacturing yield (the number of functioning chips that come out of factories).The lack of clear guidance led to further selling post mkt trading. Our worry that Nvidia's revenues are too concentrated from large customers still holds true as about 40% of Nvidia’s revenue stems from large data-center operators — companies like Alphabet Inc.’s Google and Meta Platforms Inc. Also Its gross margin hit 75.1 per cent, compared with analysts’ expectations for 75.5 per cent. In totality, the extent of outperformance for current quarter was low than historical standards, Q3 guidance too barely meeting analyst estimates & not much clarity on the "Blackwell Chip". We continue to see weakness & a ride towards 100 level again in next few weeks.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
117 days ago
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It's a fact. US equities are significantly over valued.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
117 days ago
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Is the bar for Nvidia (CMP 128) too high in today's Q2 results: Nvidia has a 3TN USD rally in it's stocks since last 2 years.It weighs 6.7% in S&P500 & app 8% in Nasdaq. It trades at a blended fwd PE of 38 compared to a recent high of 44 & last year's high of 60. S&P 500 trades at 21x 1yr fwd earnings. We expect Q2 revenue to be north of 29BN USD but cautionary guidance on its upcoming product "Blackwell Chip". It's current main product "H-200 chip" might continue to see strong demand. But forward guidance might be tricky. Q3 revenue might fall short of 31BN USD. Nvidia is the bell weather for the current AI frenzy. But AI application results have been disappointing even after recent two year's huge expenditure. Today results might show what is already known but not admitted by many. AI is like the dot com era of 2000, came early 10 years ahead of time & the same frenzy & then the bubble bursts, only for the technology to come back gradually over the next decade. Short term, we might see 115 earlier than 140.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
119 days ago
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US households hold record amount of equities. So wealth effect is massive with equities near record highs.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
120 days ago
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US manufacturing boom continues due to massive infra spending.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
120 days ago
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US corporate buybacks to end soon considering low cash levels.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
121 days ago
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Equities should correct if rate cuts are coming fast.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
122 days ago
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If there is a broad based earnings uptick in US equities, then the hard landing scenario does not hold true.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
126 days ago
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Chinese new-home values have declined about 7.2% from June 2021, about half of the 13.6% drop seen in existing-home prices.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
126 days ago
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Prices of second-hand homes in Shenzhen, once China’s least affordable city, have plunged 37% from a peak in May 2021, according to Centaline Group. They’ve tanked by about 27% in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou from their respective peaks.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
126 days ago
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Election year impact on S&P 500
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Admin iconPlatinum User
126 days ago
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Financials’ low relative forward P/E multiple is likely to re-rate if the yield curve steepening gathers momentum with Fed easing. Since 2006, the curve and financials’ forward P/E relative to the S&P 500 have been 0.58 correlated, and major turning points in the curve have coincided with similar moves in financials’ multiples. The curve began steepening in June 2023 and is currently at its highest point since mid-2022. Accordingly, the sector’s relative multiple has risen and held above former lows.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
126 days ago
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In past rate-cut cycles, growth stocks have a better rate of outperformance over value across both large and small caps, but on median, they’ve fallen more. Likewise, defensive sectors have had the edge over cyclicals. Measuring Fed rate-cut cycles from the date of the first cut to that of the last one shows large-cap value posting a median 2.4% drop versus a 24.5% decline for growth -- though the latter led in four of five instances. In the Russell 2000, value posted a median 2.7% gain to growth’s 21.5% drop, again with the latter ahead in three of five cut cycles.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
126 days ago
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If the S&P 500 finishes higher today, it will stretch the current streak of daily gains to eight, the longest winning streak since last November and tied with six other periods for the longest winning streak since 2009, according to data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group. Now the question is if financial conditions are that loose, will Fed Chair Powell be able to justify outdoving rate market expectations of 100bps cut in REMCY24 in the Jackson Hole speech on Friday.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
127 days ago
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China on track for its first EVER annual outflow from equities by foreign investors.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
128 days ago
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Global stocks have recorded their best week since November as volatility eased and investors shook off recent fears that the US was veering towards a recession. Equity markets around the world have rebounded sharply from a rout earlier in the month, buoyed by a reassuring run of US data that pointed to resilient consumers and falling inflation. Wall Street’s S&P 500 index broke a four-week losing streak to close the week up 3.9 per cent, adding 0.2 per cent on Friday for its strongest showing since November.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
128 days ago
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Global stocks have recorded their best week since November as volatility eased and investors shook off recent fears that the US was veering towards a recession. Equity markets around the world have rebounded sharply from a rout earlier in the month, buoyed by a reassuring run of US data that pointed to resilient consumers and falling inflation. Wall Street’s S&P 500 index broke a four-week losing streak to close the week up 3.9 per cent, adding 0.2 per cent on Friday for its strongest showing since November.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
128 days ago
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Interesting breakup of Berkshire Stock
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Admin iconPlatinum User
128 days ago
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Greed overcomes Fear.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
128 days ago
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The VIX Index, Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” has just broken two records: the fastest-ever spike of 25 points or more, and the fastest comeback from the spike, according to UBS Group AG.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
129 days ago
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The return of the carry trade
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Admin iconPlatinum User
130 days ago
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Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway’s cash position relative to total assets spiked to 25.0% in Q2 2024, the most in at least 24 years. Is it a sign of a significant downtrend to start in US equities. We will know by sep end as Fed's rate guidance becomes clear & Q2 earnings season finishes.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
131 days ago
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We were very close in our July24 CPI preview. Actual cpi MoM came at .155 against our estimate of .17 & core cpi MoM came at .165 against our estimate of .13.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
131 days ago
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S&P Earnings Revisions can fall further.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
132 days ago
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Though it looks like a sharp rebound from last Monday's lows, we are still not convinced by this dead cat bounce.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
132 days ago
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US gains ground in global chip market.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
133 days ago
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Share transactions in China shrank to their lowest level in over four years, as a local bond rally hit fever pitch in a weakening economy. Turnover on the Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses fell to a combined 496 billion yuan ($69.1 billion) on Monday, the thinnest since May 2020. That was also the lowest versus China’s entire market capitalization since late 2019.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
133 days ago
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Foreign investors pulled a record amount of money from China last quarter, likely reflecting deep pessimism about the world’s second-largest economy. China’s direct investment liabilities in its balance of payments dropped almost $15 billion in the April-June period, marking only the second time this figure has turned negative, according to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange released Friday. It was down about $5 billion for the first six months. Should the decline continue for the rest of the year, it would be the first annual net outflow since at least 1990, when comparable data begins.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
133 days ago
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US Vs China Equities: No Match
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Admin iconPlatinum User
134 days ago
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GS Flow desk chart shows after the few days of very elevated Vol, the rate of change into Info/Tech is massive. Hedge funds bought the AI TMT space consistently over the past 7 sessions The L/S ratio (of AI TMT) is rising and high on a LT basis (91st %-tile), but below highs seen earlier this year Hedge funds are also going back to the general US Tech space and mainly Mag7. US tech saw 2 sigma buying this week
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Admin iconPlatinum User
134 days ago
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Dips & corrections last 10 years
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Admin iconPlatinum User
134 days ago
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The long-awaited recovery in the US companies that were left out of the artificial-intelligence frenzy has finally begun. Earnings for S&P 500 companies, excluding the Magnificent Seven, are set to grow 7.4% in the second quarter from the same time a year ago, after five straight quarters of declines. Profits for the megacap tech group — Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp., Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Meta Platforms Inc., Tesla Inc. and Nvidia — are set to rise 35%.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
134 days ago
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Topix now looks inexpensive.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
135 days ago
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The reason why there is always a Fed put when US equities melt down
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Admin iconPlatinum User
135 days ago
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Who were selling equities on Monday. The funds which were systematically short IVs.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
136 days ago
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Is it a sign of US equity overvaluation or a sign of Chinese equity undervaluation.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
136 days ago
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Chinese population growth has turned -ve.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
137 days ago
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US earnings are getting some of the best reactions in years, but the S&P 500 is reaping few benefits thanks to concerns about excessive tech valuations and an economic slowdown. The median reaction for firms that beat profit estimates outperformed the benchmark by 1.7% on the day of reporting results — the widest margin in Bloomberg Intelligence’s records going back to 2019. The median for stocks missing forecasts trailed by just 1.1%, one of the narrowest margins over the same period.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
138 days ago
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Cruel Summers for US equities
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Admin iconPlatinum User
138 days ago
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Fewer U.S. companies are topping earnings estimates this quarterly reporting season with Materials and Consumer Discretionary sectors among the biggest laggards. Of the 397 companies in Standard & Poor's 500 that have announced results in the second quarter, 79% have posted better-than-expected earnings as compared with 81% for the whole season a year ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. About 16% missed analyst EPS estimates, compared with 14% a year ago. Companies missed revenue estimates 21% of the time, while 38% topped. That compared with 19% and 52% respectively a year ago.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
138 days ago
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It is ironical that higher yields are helping equities for the moment as they lift the dollar, supporting a weaker yen and protecting the carry trade, but it is not a marriage that is likely to last. Higher yields suggest a strengthening US economy, possibly higher inflation and a Fed more likely to stay the course and not necessarily cut rates; or if they do, they will do it more slowly then markets are pricing in.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
139 days ago
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That professional traders picked the worst day of the year to dive back in bolsters a host of bullish arguments, among them that all the volatility is an overreaction to economic data that, while weakening, has yet to confirm a recession. And shares’ sharp rebound from the lows suggests hedge funds were on to something. But it’ll take more than just another turnaround-Tuesday to prove the pros beat the day-trader set to the bottom of a market where valuations remain elevated by almost any measure.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
139 days ago
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Hedge funds’ exposure to stocks typically declines leading up to a presidential election. Then, managers quickly re-leverage shortly before the vote, and keep adding to their positions afterward. Current net exposure is still above the long-term average for an election cycle, according to Goldman Sachs data, indicating there’s still room for selling.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
139 days ago
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Hedge fund's leverage, which is often viewed as a barometer of risk appetite, fell to 54% in early July, the lowest level since January, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime brokerage desk. Hedge funds are now underweight technology, media and telecom by the most on record after spending two months unloading the best performing stocks in the market.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
139 days ago
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Have a look at this chart before thinking today's rebound in stocks is a sign that the worst is over. In 2020, the S&P 500 saw more than a half dozen +4% days in the process of drawing down more than 30% overall. Volatility is part of the deal. Don't get sucked back in yet.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
139 days ago
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When the last bear Marko Kolanovic left his firm, US equities made their top. We had written about it on 6th July opinion piece "An Ode To The Last Bear"
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Admin iconPlatinum User
139 days ago
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Extremes reached in the Cboe Volatility Index and the S&P 500’s 14-day relative strength index could signal better times ahead for stocks in the short run, even if they’ve yet to hit their final lows of the corrective process. The combined jump in the VIX above 30 and drop to 30 in the 14-day RSI is relatively unusual, and has historically led to positive returns over the next three months in 80% of cases since the turn of the century.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
139 days ago
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We are still not comfortable with US mega cap tech valuations. There might be one more round of selling to bring it closer to long term average.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
141 days ago
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Trailing P/E country wise
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Admin iconPlatinum User
141 days ago
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The party has ended & how. The Topix and Nikkei 225 Stock Average gauges slid more than 7% in morning trading in Tokyo, driving the their drops to about 20% — a loss that signals a bear market. Both benchmarks headed for three-day declines that would be the worst since the 2011 tsunami and Fukushima nuclear meltdown. A circuit breaker halted trading of Topix futures for about 10 minutes.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
141 days ago
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Valuation for US small caps is not favorable any more.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
141 days ago
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Investors poured nearly $1 billion into real estate and utility sector US exchange-traded funds last week, compared with just $300 million into tech ETFs, Bloomberg Intelligence data show.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
141 days ago
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Berkshire Hathaway now owns 4% of all US treasury bills, higher than even US Fed. Buffett has 295 BN USD while Fed has 177 BN USD. If he is sitting on so much cash, one can imagine what lies ahead for equities in general & IVs in particular.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
142 days ago
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The unwinding of carry traders most affect the Nasdaq as large no of Japanese investments were routed into it via yen funded carry trades.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
142 days ago
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Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has slashed its stake in iPhone maker Apple in half as part of a selling spree in which the billionaire investor dumped $76bn of stocks. The company cut its position in Apple by more than $50bn to $84.2bn in the second quarter, generating huge investment profits, according to filings published on Saturday.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
143 days ago
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We could not agree more. Not only Nvidia but other US tech blue chips are way overvalued. Their earnings were not great except Mera. Share prices have dropped for Amazon on worries about AI investment costs, for Intel on a tough outlook which is resulting in swingeing job cuts, and a drop for Snapchat parent Snap as its sales fell short.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
144 days ago
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Japanese companies may be forced into buying the yen as a hedge against forward earnings as the USD/JPY level falls toward their breakeven projections for this fiscal year. Adding to the gloomy mood in Japanese equities is a reversal of foreign inflows, with the biggest net selling in ten months. A Friday close below that 200-day average will signal more negativity for next week.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
144 days ago
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Intel Corp. said its third-quarter revenue will disappoint and announced more than 15,000 job cuts. Amazon.com Inc projected profits that missed analysts’ estimates as it ramped up spending to meet demand for artificial intelligence services. Shares in both fell in after hours trading Thursday.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
144 days ago
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Shares of smaller firms are more sensitive to economic activity weakening so they’re bearing the brunt of the selloff today. The Russell 2000 has now given back the prior two days’ gains and is on track for a loss this week.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
144 days ago
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Today's US equity session marks a departure from the “bad news is good news” framework equities have traded in for the most part this year. Stocks have typically rallied as economic surprise index fell as it increased the odds of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. With the Fed staying pat in the face of deteriorating data, there’s growing concern that it’s falling behind the curve and rate cut may arrive too late to contain the economic damage.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
144 days ago
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The Fed is a hot topic this week for global investors trying to time rate cuts. It’s also — unusually — a prominent feature on Corporate America’s post-earnings conference calls. The words “Federal Reserve” were on track to be mentioned about 380 times on second-quarter calls with analysts, according to a Bloomberg analysis of transcripts of S&P 500 and Stoxx 600 companies. That would be the highest tally ever in the database’s records going back to 2001, if the current pace holds.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
144 days ago
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CTAs seldom go wrong. They have cut their equity positions to a two-month low in July, according to Bank of America Corp. Those funds typically use a combination of price-trend signals and volatility to determine allocation. As the stock-market advance hit a snag, CTAs unwound their positions as well. Signs of volatile times to come.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
144 days ago
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If VP Kamala gets elected, with a split US Congress mandate between the Dems & Reps, it augurs well for S&P
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Admin iconPlatinum User
145 days ago
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Fed “has clearly telegraphed” a September rate cut.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
145 days ago
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Truly Insane. Nvidia stock behaving like a penny stock.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
145 days ago
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Stocks tend to do well when incumbents don't run for reelection.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
146 days ago
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It looks like a soft landing for US equity earnings.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
146 days ago
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The tale of two neighbours.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
146 days ago
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US Earnings by Week in Q2
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Admin iconPlatinum User
147 days ago
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McDonald’s Corp. sales declined for the first time since 2020 in the second quarter, falling short of analyst expectations for modest growth.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
148 days ago
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US small bank earnings have disappointed but they are now trading at highs pre SVB crisis
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Admin iconPlatinum User
149 days ago
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Early US corporate earnings reports have indicated US consumers are continuing to feel the pinch of high interest rates and still elevated inflation, particularly in the low-income category. Second quarter EPS growth in both consumer staples and consumer discretionary sectors is sitting at the lowest level in two years.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
149 days ago
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US corporates that posted disappointing figures have generally not been severely punished, at least so far. Companies in the S&P 500 that have trailed projections on both earnings per share and sales have underperformed the broader S&P 500 Index by an average of 1.6% within a day of reporting, the least since 2017, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
149 days ago
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The S&P 500 has climbed about 25% since the Fed started raising rates in March 2022, adding about $3 trillion to household wealth.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
149 days ago
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Apple drops out of top 5 phone makers in China.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
150 days ago
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Once again today, smaller firms largely beat the cohort of tech megacaps — extending their July surge to about 10%.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
150 days ago
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Big tech slump has much further to fall.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
151 days ago
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Almost a third of S&P 500 companies have reported second-quarter results so far, and the spotlight is increasingly on the sales figures, where the slowdown in economic growth is starting to become visible. Only 43% of companies have managed to beat revenue expectations, which would be the lowest reading in five years.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
151 days ago
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Considering the universal long equity positions in US, the scope for rates to fall is still significant.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
152 days ago
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Seasoned Asian equity investors will be looking at the signal from a sliding AUD/JPY with alarm. History shows that unwinding of Aussie-yen carry trades typically coincides with a period of weakness for regional stocks. One of the most extreme scenarios occurred in the fourth quarter of 2008 when shorting AUD/JPY became a primary hedging tool against collapsing Asian shares. Current conditions are somewhat different, but a rapid unwinding of a well established FX carry trade is likely to fuel cross-asset angst, which will sour the mood toward equities in the region.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
152 days ago
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With the election cycle kicking off in earnest, demand for portfolio insurance in the event of a market crash is surging, as so-called tail-risk contracts register their biggest rise in costs all year. A broad measure of equity volatility has also increased at the fastest weekly pace since March 2023, just as investors have been plowing record cash into exchange-traded funds tracking the S&P 500.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
152 days ago
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For a fourth straight session — and the 10th time in 11 days — the performance of smaller companies exceeded that of their larger brethren, more evidence of investor tastes shifting away from the megacap tech names that have come to dominate benchmark indexes. The Russell 2000 is up 2.5% this week compared with a loss of 0.7% in the S&P 500 and 1.5% in the Nasdaq 100.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
152 days ago
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The magnificent 7 have a lot to deliver this earning season as seen by yesterday Tesla's results.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
152 days ago
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The shadow of CRE looms large over European banks. Today's DB results just the show starter. This is only in public listed space. Imagine the situation in private debt financing of CRE assets. Meanwhile in US, Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc., which provides financing for commercial real estate, is cutting its dividend by 24% as defaults increase and borrowers struggle to make payments or refinance their loans.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
153 days ago
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Tesla Inc. reported its fourth straight quarter of disappointing profits on Tuesday, and Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk made clear that better days are still a ways off. The electric vehicle giant won’t unveil a highly anticipated robotaxi until Oct. 10 — and that will only be a prototype. A new, lower-cost car that could juice sales won’t go into production until the first half of next year at the earliest. A planned factory in Mexico is on pause at least through the US presidential election on Nov. 5. And a humanoid robot that Musk claims will send Tesla’s valuation soaring won’t be ready anytime soon, either.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
155 days ago
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A key US regulator has privately found half of the major banks it oversees have an inadequate grasp of a broad swath of potential risks from cyber attacks to employee blunders, according to people familiar with the matter. In the confidential assessments, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said 11 of the 22 large banks it supervises have “insufficient” or “weak” management of so-called operational risk, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the information isn’t public. That contributed to about one-third of the banks rating three or worse on a five-point scale for their overall management, the people said. The scores are the latest sign that US regulators are concerned about the level of risk at the country’s largest banks in wake of a series of failures last year. (Source Bloomberg)
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Admin iconPlatinum User
155 days ago
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U.S. small caps just saw the 2nd largest weekly inflow ever. The largest small cap inflow occurred in the blow off top phase before the 2008 market crash.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
157 days ago
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What happens to Chinese exports to US when Trump comes to power.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
158 days ago
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According to calculations going back to the start of 1928, the SPX has never followed an all-time high with two consecutive losses of 1% or more. In fairness, the Dow has done this a few times in the past, though only five times over the past century (and most recently in February 2021.) The Nikkei has also done it three times (1971, 1981, and 1986). Is this the beginning of the much awaited large fall.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
158 days ago
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Will Chip Stocks still out perform small-cap shares. May be 3rd time not so.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
160 days ago
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Wall Street extended a pattern of money rotating into small caps and out of the megacap “safety” since last week’s soft inflation data. Over the past four sessions, the Russell 2000 has beaten the Nasdaq 100 by almost 12 percentage points — a feat not seen since 2011.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
162 days ago
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S&P 500 dream run in last month is totally disassociated from recent significantly negative economic data surprises.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
163 days ago
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For the first time since 2022, investors will likely shift their attention to the rest of the 493 companies in the S&P 500. Companies outside of tech are expected to report their first quarterly earnings growth in at least six quarters.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
165 days ago
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The selloff in the S&P 500 in the face of benign inflation data is notable. In fact, it’s the worst reaction to a “miss” in inflation since the Fed started hiking rates. Since mid-2022, equities have tended to rally on CPI days when the data came in line or below expectations. Only in April 2023, stocks slipped 0.4% when headline CPI printed below expectations yet core was in line with estimates. In April 2022, the S&P 500 slid 0.3% as headline CPI was in line with estimates while core CPI was below.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
167 days ago
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Earnings revision happening faster non US ex Saudi.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
167 days ago
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US CPI likely impact on US equities tomm
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Admin iconPlatinum User
167 days ago
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Short sellers, who borrow and then sell stocks in a bid to make money from price declines, amassed $10 billion in second-quarter paper profits, according to data from S3 Partners LLC. Paper earnings from sectors such as industrials, health care and financials offset a $15.7 billion mark-to-market loss in technology.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
167 days ago
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Q2CY24 might be the first +ve EPS growth for S&P 493!!
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Admin iconPlatinum User
167 days ago
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S&P 500 ex magnificent 7 Vs the magnificent 7.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
168 days ago
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Goldman's Rubner analysis of data going back to 1928 show that the S&P 500 reaches a “local top” in mid-July before embarking on what’s usually the fifth worst two-week period of the year in early August. He wrote in a recent report that the bar for corporate results is high as those lofty expectations are already baked in, meaning the earnings season is “no longer a tailwind for stocks.” On top of that, systematic funds positioning has reached such an elevated level that any spike in volatility or earnings miss, especially from “highly owned market-capitalization weights, may force non-fundamental sellers to reduce risk".
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Admin iconPlatinum User
168 days ago
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The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 1.5% today, taking its decline from a May 20 high to over 9% and putting it near a technical correction. On the mainland, the CSI 300 Index slid for a fifth session. That followed a seventh week of losses on Friday, its longest losing run since early 2012.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
168 days ago
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French Equities have lost their long term valuations. Political gridlock means it's not returning any time soon.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
169 days ago
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The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 make up 37% of the index’s market cap but contribute 24% to its earnings—the widest such gap since the third quarter of 1990, according to data from Apollo Global Management. So will the dream run of the magnificent 7 continue in Q2 or the rest of market do catch up. We believe v will see significant earnings disappointment by end CY24.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
169 days ago
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Companies in the S&P 500 are expected to report a fourth straight quarter of earnings growth, with profits projected to have climbed 8.8% from last year.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
169 days ago
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Earnings among the Magnificent 7 rose 51.8% year-on-year in the first quarter compared to 1.3% earnings growth for the rest of the S&P 500, according to LSEG. That gap is expected to shrink, with forecasts for Magnificent 7 year-on-year earnings rising 29.7% in the second quarter and earnings among the rest of the index up 7.2%, according to LSEG. Later in the year, the Magnificent 7's profit advantage is expected to diminish further. The group's year-on-year earnings growth is expected to be 17.4% in the third quarter and 18.3% in the fourth. That compares with rest-of-index earnings growth of 6.8% in the third quarter and 13.9% in the fourth.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
169 days ago
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The S&P 500 is trading at about 21 times forward earnings estimates, but if the top 10 stocks by market value are excluded that figure drops to 16.5 on average for the rest of the index. Very cheap broader market.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
170 days ago
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All the improvements in earnings outlook have happened in AI stocks only.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
170 days ago
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Index and median equity returns have diverged across the world in 2QCY24, with the US leading as outperformance of mega-cap stocks disguised declines or smaller gains among the rest. The difference is especially notable in China, with the MSCI China Index 5.7% higher, despite the median equity down 4.4%.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
171 days ago
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Now New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu has downgraded Nvidia amongst one of the rare downgrades for itself. Ferragu downgraded the AI-focused chipmaker to neutral from buy, writing that the stock is “getting fully valued” after soaring 154% this year, on top of a gain of almost 240% in 2023. Shares fell 1.9% on Friday, compared with a gain of 1% for the Nasdaq 100 Index. Additional upside “will only materialize in a bull case, in which the outlook beyond 2025 increases materially, and we do not have the conviction on this scenario playing out yet,” Ferragu wrote.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
173 days ago
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THE LAST BEAR IS GONE. JPMORGAN CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST KOLANOVIC TO DEPART FROM FIRM
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Admin iconPlatinum User
173 days ago
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What happens to Equity returns 1 year down the line.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
174 days ago
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Most of US exceptionalism flows from its equity market's out performance over RoW
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Admin iconPlatinum User
175 days ago
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Stock volumes are exploding outside regular trading hours. The Mania continues. All this while only the ninth time in almost three decades, the roughly 2,800 stocks in the MSCI ACWI Index have declined on median this quarter, while the benchmark itself increased.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
175 days ago
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Here Comes The PAIN.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
175 days ago
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Companies with largest exposure to Chinese tariffs have gross under performed thise who face domestic consumers.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
176 days ago
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The preliminary results from the French exit polls suggest that far-right National Rally (RN) got the highest number of votes in the first round, as expected. Early projections for how that will translate into seats are highly uncertain, but it looks like the RN and its allies will come in strong in the second-round vote on July 7. A hung parliament is likely, but an absolute majority is a realistic possibility.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
176 days ago
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French voters are turning out at the highest level this century for the first round of a snap legislative election that has seen the far-right National Rally dominating the polls. Figures show 25.9% of registered voters had cast a ballot as of 12 p.m., compared with 18.43% at the same time in the last vote two years ago, according to the Interior Ministry.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
176 days ago
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While the two-round ballot makes seat predictions tricky, the National Rally and its allies are projected to become the biggest group in the lower house of parliament with between 238 and 281 members, according to Bloomberg’s final poll of polls before the blackout on Friday evening.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
176 days ago
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As of 28th June, the last day polling companies are allowed to publish projections ahead of the vote — National Rally and its allies had a strong lead, on course to get 36.2% of the vote, according to Bloomberg’s poll of polls.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
177 days ago
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After a 500-plus session drought without a record to start the year, the S&P 500 has notched 31 all-time closing highs in 2024 during the January-June period, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Only one other year surpassed it this century, 2021.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
177 days ago
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If by 16th July we don't have a 2% correction on S&P 500 in a day, we will be entering the 10 longest stretches in the last 98 years without a 2% correction.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
177 days ago
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Weak BS corporates are not finding any investors. Stronger for longer.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
178 days ago
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Nike does not look good at all.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
180 days ago
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Hedge fund exposure to utilities at 14yr high. Will it stay that way by end cy24.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
180 days ago
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Largest over weight vs under weight.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
180 days ago
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Higher for longer: Not rates, but Equities!!
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Admin iconPlatinum User
181 days ago
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The side effects of AI!!
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Admin iconPlatinum User
182 days ago
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The AI Story..
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Admin iconPlatinum User
183 days ago
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When short interest in fang7 is so low, one should expect a decent correction to happen in short term.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
183 days ago
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We know why the QT taper aids equities. Fed has loosened financial conditions by easing global liquidity.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
183 days ago
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Chinese economy still not looking to recover!!! Beyond the technical bounce, don't think the recent rally can sustain.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
183 days ago
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Watch Lumber to gold ratio .This is weekly chart.It is precariously placed just above Jan.23 level of 0.183.Around this time SPX was around 3900 lowest point of current rally and NIFTY was around 17500 close to lowest point.It made its lowest later than SPX.Around this time copper made a high of 4.28 and then it went on to make a low of 3.57 before rally started to touch a peak at 5.05.Correlation between all these asset classes with Lumber to gold ratio seems high.Suggests adopting cautious approach on equities globally.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
185 days ago
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Huge expiry today in S&P options!!!
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SATYAKAM iconGold User
Senior Rates Trader
185 days ago
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Such low short OI implies a sharp fall in S&P in short term
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SATYAKAM iconGold User
Senior Rates Trader
185 days ago
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With US financial conditions so loose, don't expect any meaningful reduction in US core cpi any time soon. Fed might realise soon that even 1 cut might be difficult to justify by end cy24
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Admin
230 days ago
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Our final short on S&P 500 at 5200 happened yesterday. We will update further as situation unfolds.
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Admin
236 days ago
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S&P consolidating in 5000-5100 range. We still believe that we will see lower levels of 4700 odd in next few months. Our two shorts as per our trade reco on S&P initiated on 21st April'24 at 5000 & 5100 are live. We will update members if we change our view.
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