Macrospectrum
Subscribe icon

Market Blog

image
image
Preview
image
Admin iconGold User
1 days ago
icon
Img
US industrial production came strong too.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
1 days ago
icon
Img
Strong run of US data continues
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
4 days ago
icon
Img
Even the investment growth in China is slowing down.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
4 days ago
icon
Img
Over the weekend, Chinese data continue coming weaker than expected.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
7 days ago
icon
Img
Atlant fed now tracks Q3 GDP at 2.3%
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
11 days ago
icon
Img
Eurozone industrial production suffered significantly in July.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
15 days ago
icon
Img
US job openings fell in July to the lowest since the start of 2021 and layoffs rose, consistent with other signs of slowing demand for workers. In US JOLTS data, available positions decreased to 7.67 million from a downwardly revised 7.91 million reading in the prior month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, known as JOLTS, showed Wednesday. The number of layoffs rose to 1.76 million, the highest since March 2023 and led by dismissals at leisure and hospitality firms. At the same time, hiring picked up slightly from the lowest level since April 2020. The number of vacancies per unemployed worker, a ratio the Fed watches closely, declined to 1.1, still the lowest in three years. At its peak in 2022, the ratio was 2 to 1. The so-called quits rate, which measures people who voluntarily leave their job, edged up to 2.1%, still near the lowest since 2020. That suggests people are less confident in their ability to find a new position than they were a couple years ago.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
15 days ago
icon
The US trade deficit widened to a two-year high in July, fueled by a surge in imports of goods and partly reflecting stepped-up efforts by companies to ensure adequate supply ahead of a potential dockworkers’ strike. The goods and services trade gap grew 7.9% from the prior month to $78.8 billion, Commerce Department data showed Wednesday. The figure was in line with the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
15 days ago
icon
Img
US Employment data matters more than US CPI now.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
17 days ago
icon
Img
US Credit card deliquencies continues to rise.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
19 days ago
icon
Img
The Chinese official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index declined to 49.1 from 49.4 in July, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Saturday. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was 49.5. The reading has been below the 50-mark separating growth from contraction for all but three months since April 2023.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
20 days ago
icon
Img
Interest-rate swaps show traders see a 20% probability the Fed lowers its key rates by a half-point at the next policy meeting in September, compared to about a 24% chance prior to today's PCE data report. For the remainder of 2024, the contracts imply a total of 97 basis points worth of easing.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
20 days ago
icon
Img
Core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out volatile food and energy items, increased 0.2% from June, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data out Friday. On a three-month annualized basis — a metric economists say paints a more accurate picture of the trajectory of inflation — it advanced 1.7%, the slowest this year. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending climbed 0.4%, an acceleration from the prior month.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
21 days ago
icon
Img
Soon we will be revisiting Fed's Chair Powell pivot-about-turn: Today's US Q2 GDP upward revision to 3% from 2.8% & consumer spending from previous estimated 2.3% to 2.9% makes us feel that Fed Chair Powell again has led the bond market down the wrong road. Just like he did in Aug'21 (transitory swan song) & again in Dec'23 (early celebration on inflation mandate). Now he is seeing employment worsening so much so that he outdoved even a dovish market at Jackson Hole this year. We wonder where is the plot for a significant employment coming from. UR is at 4.3% because of more supply of labor, more so bcs of elevated migration. It is not bcs of absolute job losses. Otherwise Initial Jobless Claims will have been north of 350k by now. The 4 week average of IJC in Aug is hardly 235k. Every year US sees IJC jumping up from early July and then stabilising by mid Aug. This happens bcs of tropical storms as well as midwest US auto majors shutting down for retooling. We believe July NFP was an outlier. Current market estimates for Aug NFP are at 150k. We believe it might be north of 225k as well as significant upward revisions to previous two months. Consumer spending can't be this strong with the kind of weak employment conditions as July NFP indicated. Additionally financial conditions have loosened to 2022 levels post Powell's JH speech. That does not augur well for a win over last mile inflation. We do believe rate cuts are coming but it will be a shallow rate cut cycle of 100-125bps max in next 6 months & then a status quo as US economy stabilises at potential output levels without needing any further cuts. The kind of fiscal spending currently in US does not warrant a monetary action to support US economy.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
21 days ago
icon
Img
The Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker was 4.7% in July. For people who changed jobs, the Tracker was 5.0%; for those who did not change jobs, it was 4.5%.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
22 days ago
icon
Img
Last week US NFP revisions look overdone.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
22 days ago
icon
Img
Goldman: Businesses avoided reporting unauthorized immigrants to the unemployment insurance system, pushing down reported employment in last week’s benchmark revision. A proper count would have lowered the March 2024 employment level by -300K instead of -818K
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
28 days ago
icon
Img
Applications for US unemployment benefits barely rose last week, indicating the labor market is moderating only gradually. Initial claims increased by 4,000 to 232,000 in the week ended Aug. 17, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. The four-week moving average, which smooths out some of the volatility, fell to the lowest in a month. Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving unemployment benefits, edged up to 1.86 million in the week ended Aug. 10. When that number rises, it suggests that unemployed people are having more difficulty finding a job.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
29 days ago
icon
Img
US job growth was probably far less robust in the year through March than previously reported, keeping pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next month. The number of workers on payrolls will likely be revised down by 818,000 for the 12 months through March — or around 68,000 less each month — according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary benchmark revision. It was the largest downward revision since 2009.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
29 days ago
icon
Img
Today's revision to US NFP data: We expect government’s preliminary benchmark revisions on Wednesday to show payrolls growth in the year through March'24 was at least 800,000. This implies a 15yr high in NFP revisions. It also implies that the average monthly NFP for Apr'23 till Mar'24 might get reduced from previously reported 260,000 to sub 200,000. Which is still a great NFP no to have. But if our view is correct, market chatter for a 50bps cut in sep might increase from current 20% probability to almost 80%. Fed Chair Powell is likely to consider this no in his JH speech on Friday. So a no north of 1MN might spook US equities & commodities, push global bond yields lower, steepen 2-10 US sofr curve. In summary a hard landing due to a worse than initially expected employment nos. We still believe in 25bps*3 cuts in REMCY24 but can't rule out the first cut to be of 50bps.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
30 days ago
icon
Img
The slowdown in Canadian headline and core inflation in July - and a concentrated set of key pressures - will likely keep the Bank of Canada on its rate-cutting path. Durable and core goods deflation show restrictive monetary policy is gaining traction in the real economy. As the labor market cools, we expect services price pressures to abate more meaningfully, as well. Headline inflation rose 0.4% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis in July. That was enough for annual inflation to slow to 2.5% from 2.7% in June and a peak of 8.1% in June 2022.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
31 days ago
icon
Img
Both layoff and quits rate are falling.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
32 days ago
icon
Img
US wage growth is now rebounding from its lows.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
32 days ago
icon
Img
EU employment growth is slowing. It's a matter of time before ECB admits 50bps total cut in REMCY24.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
32 days ago
icon
Img
US Consumers remain strong.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
34 days ago
icon
Img
US consumer sentiment rose in early August for the first time in five months on more optimistic expectations about their finances as inflation steadied. The sentiment index climbed to 67.8 from 66.4 in July, according to the preliminary August reading from the University of Michigan. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 66.9.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
34 days ago
icon
Img
Eurozone productivity remains constant. Still augurs well for 25-25 bps cuts each in sep and dec meeting.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
35 days ago
icon
Img
US retail sales accelerated in July by the most since early 2023 in a broad advance that points to a resilient consumer, even in the face of high prices and borrowing costs. The value of retail purchases, unadjusted for inflation, increased 1% in July and helped by a sharp snapback in car sales, Commerce Department data showed Thursday. Excluding autos and gasoline stations, sales were up 0.4%.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
35 days ago
icon
Img
Very strong US retail sales data along with stronger core retail sales data. Initial jobless claims too lower than estimates. Looks like IJCs are following last year's seasonal patterns where they rose in July and started cooling down from mid August. Q3 GDP now looks likely at 2.4%. US bond yields immediately higher by 7-8bps across the curve. We continue to believe in 25 bps cut thrice in CY24 purely by high real rate logic. We are some where between recession & soft landing currently.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
35 days ago
icon
Img
Rental inflation has come down about as much in the last 12 months as it has ever done before.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
35 days ago
icon
Img
Private-sector measures, looking at rent changes in leases signed within the last month, better show the direction of travel. The measure of rental inflation kept by Zillow would have warned in 2021 that a big spike was coming, and has suggested for a year now that the problem is largely over. The official data don’t reflect this yet.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
35 days ago
icon
Img
The Cleveland Fed produces a median and trimmed mean (which excludes outliers and averages the rest). Neither has come down to 3%, and the median ticked up slightly, so this was less encouraging, but the trends still appear to be in the direction the Fed wants.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
35 days ago
icon
Img
The Atlanta Fed measures “sticky” inflation of goods whose prices take time to change. It continues to fall, and over the last three months has risen at an annualized rate below 3%
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
35 days ago
icon
Img
US goods inflation is negative. Spikes in fuel and food are over. At this point, inflation is all about core services, whose prices are disinflating, but very slowly.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
35 days ago
icon
Img
US headline consumer price inflation dropped below 3% for the first time since 2021. The rate cuts are inevitable considering worsening employment conditions but how low and how fast is a question.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
35 days ago
icon
Img
Rigid housing inflation in US might keep core pce at 2.8% by end 24
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
35 days ago
icon
Img
Japan’s economy rebounded to growth in the second quarter on the back of an increase in private consumption, in a sign that a virtuous cycle long sought by the central bank linking rising incomes to increased spending may be starting to emerge. Gross domestic product expanded at an annualized pace of 3.1% in the three months through June versus the prior period, the Cabinet Office reported Thursday. The reading, which exceeded the 2.3% consensus estimate, came after the economy contracted by a revised 2.3% in the first quarter.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
35 days ago
icon
Img
Chinese fixed-asset investment unexpectedly slowed to 3.6% in the first seven months of the year, while consumption remained weak despite a seasonal uptick last month. Capital spending by state-owned enterprises slowed to 6.3% in the first seven months from 6.8% in the first half, while that of private firms stagnated from a year ago. We already knew Chinese consumption was weak but with investments also slowing down now, China's GDP might find it hard to cross 4.7% in CY24.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
36 days ago
icon
Img
3m annualized core cpi fallen to 1.6%, lowest since 2021
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
37 days ago
icon
Img
China’s bank loans to the real economy contracted for the first time in 19 years, a grim milestone that underscores why weak domestic demand has emerged as a major hurdle to the economy’s growth and recovery. Yuan-denominated bank loans that exclude those extended to financial institutions shrank by 77 billion yuan ($10.7 billion) at the end of July from a month ago, according to data released Tuesday by the People’s Bank of China. That marked the first drop since July 2005, as more debt was repaid than taken out. Chinese households and businesses are rushing to repay debt as investment returns dwindle and real borrowing costs — adjusted for falling prices across the economy — remain elevated. That reflects languishing domestic demand, which is putting the annual growth target of around 5% at risk as overseas orders began to soften.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
37 days ago
icon
PPI items that enter into the financial-services component of core PCE rose 2.3% (NSA), softer than we expected and June’s increase was revised down modestly. PPI airfares fell 2.5% NSA. PPI health-care costs remain largely steady. With PPI components accounting for less than 30% of the core PCE basket, we’ll wait for tomorrow’s CPI data to fix our PCE estimate. For now, though, combining the PPI with our CPI forecasts suggests core PCE, due Aug. 30, will likely print 0.22% month over month in July, and 2.7% year over year.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
37 days ago
icon
We have recently mentioned in one of trade recos that we are bearish on Euro. Today's investor confidence data about the Eurozone and German economies has collapsed in August, boosting the case for another interest rate cut by the European Central Bank next month. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for the Eurozone fell 25.8 points to 17.9 — the biggest drop since the early months of the Covid-19 pandemic in April 2020. Germany, the Eurozone’s largest economy, suffered its worst fall in economic sentiment in two years. The ZEW index fell 22.6 points in a month to reach 19.2 — its lowest level since the start of the year. The fall was almost three times as big as expected by analysts polled by Bloomberg.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
37 days ago
icon
Img
US producer prices rose in July by less than forecast, reflecting the first decline in services costs this year amid an ongoing moderation in inflationary pressures. The producer price index for final demand increased 0.1% from a month earlier, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report released Tuesday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 0.2% gain. Compared with a year ago, the PPI rose 2.2%. The PPI excluding the volatile food and energy categories was unchanged in July from the prior month, the tamest reading in four months. The core PPI rose 2.4% from a year ago.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
37 days ago
icon
Img
July CPI Forecasts.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
38 days ago
icon
Img
NEWYORK FED SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS: Consumers’ three-year-ahead inflation expectations fell by 0.6 percentage point to 2.3 percent, hitting a new series low since the survey’s inception in June 2013, according to the July Survey of Consumer Expectations. Median one- and five-year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.0 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively. Delinquency expectations increased, with the average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increasing by 1.0 percentage point to 13.3 percent, its highest level since April 2020. Labor market expectations came in mixed, with respondents’ median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth declining by 0.3 percentage point to 2.7 percent. However, the mean expected likelihood that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 36.6 percent.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
38 days ago
icon
Img
The anomaly in the measurement of China’s trade surplus (between SAFE & Customs) continue to grow, hitting a record $87 billion in the second quarter and taking it to almost $150 billion for the first half of the year.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
38 days ago
icon
Img
Goldman: 70% of the rise in the July unemployment rate came from temporary layoffs but state level data don't show any big jump in Texas. Among states, California had the largest rise. Among industries, leisure and hospitality.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
41 days ago
icon
Img
China’s consumer prices rose more than expected in July, largely due to seasonal factors like weather, leaving intact concern over sluggish domestic demand and boosting the case for more policy support. The consumer price index climbed 0.5% from a year earlier, exceeding the 0.3% estimate in a Bloomberg survey, data from the National Bureau of Statistics on Friday show. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, core CPI rose 0.4%, the least since January, indicating lingering weakness in overall demand.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
41 days ago
icon
Img
US consumer loan deliquencies are now rising rapidly. Almost at 10yr highs. Now if we compare the Fed June SEP, it's dec projection for Unemployment Rate (UR) was 4% & core PCE at 2.8%. We are now at 4.3% in UR as per July NFP & 2.6% in core PCE as per June nos. Does it not imply that Fed is way too restrictive & we should have seen 100 bps cut by now. The risks for a hard landing keeps increasing, the more Fed waits.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
41 days ago
icon
Img
US govt 2023 Spending pattern
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
41 days ago
icon
Img
US credit card debt hits fresh high.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
41 days ago
icon
Img
Chinese are adopting new energy vehicles fast.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
41 days ago
icon
Img
Fewer industries in US are hiring currently as they wait and watch.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
42 days ago
icon
Img
Initial jobless claims at 233k against expected 241k. It seems that just like last year, we were seeing seasonal high no in July. More clarity will come after Aug NFP. Initial claims decreased by 17,000 to 233,000 in the week ended Aug. 3. That was helped by fewer applications in states that had registered large increases in recent weeks, such as Michigan, Missouri and Texas.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
43 days ago
icon
Img
A potential demand shock from the US could prove hard to contain since the country remains the single largest destination for Chinese exports by country, despite years of trade rancor and tariffs designed to protect domestic industries. There’s also a risk that a US slowdown could send shockwaves around the world, curbing global demand for Chinese goods.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
43 days ago
icon
Img
China’s exports growth unexpectedly slowed in July, signaling a cooling of global demand that has been propping up growth in the world’s second-biggest economy. Exports rose 7% in July in dollar terms from a year earlier, falling short of economists’ median forecast of a 9.5% gain, according to data from the customs administration Wednesday. Meanwhile, imports beat expectations and expanded 7.2%, narrowing a trade surplus to $84.65 billion from the previous month.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
45 days ago
icon
Img
Does not look like a recession economy. Sep cuts down to 48 bps from pre ISM 60bps. Year end now implies 118bps which before ism data went up to 146bps.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
48 days ago
icon
Img
There might be some noise in today's NFP as seen by the high no of people impacted by weather.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
48 days ago
icon
Img
All round weakness in today's NFP
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
48 days ago
icon
Img
Today's NFP nos confirm our worst fears. US is already in a recession. The employment conditions are so poor that UR stands at 4.3 now against Fed's target of 4.1 by dec'24. We blv sep might see a 50bps cut by Fed now. One look at the AHE tells the story. The annual increase of 3.6% for average hourly earnings is the smallest gain since May 2021. That will reduce any inflationary pressure from the job market. And it comes on top of figures earlier this week that showed other evidence of a slowdown in labor-cost gains -- the employment cost index and unit labor costs. It would be surprising if we don’t see this reflected in the upcoming inflation reports.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
49 days ago
icon
Img
The data today in US is exceptionally weak. Both IJC, 1yr high, continuing claims 3 yr high, ism mftg employment lowest since jun2020. Employment conditions in US are weakening significantly. Productivity higher, lower wages imply complete rebalancing. Mkt pricing is still not pricing in an accident. We continue to believe 3 cuts minimum in REMCY24.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
49 days ago
icon
Img
A big miss just now on US ISM manufacturing as well as employment index. Though manufacturing only 10% of US economy, yet it shows the extent of weakness.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
49 days ago
icon
Img
Another set of weak US employment data today. The weekly US IJC (initial jobless claims) makes a new high of 249k against 236k. The continuing claims were highest since Nov'21. Unit labor costs too came lower at 0.9% against consensus of 1.8% in Q2. Productivity higher too. In nut shell a great set of data for Fed to cut bcs employment conditions are weakening fast & wages are not at all inflationary.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
49 days ago
icon
Img
The Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 49.8 last month from 51.8 in June, according to a statement released by Caixin and S&P Global Thursday. It missed the median forecast of 51.5 and was the first time since October the gauge dropped under 50, which indicates contraction.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
50 days ago
icon
Img
Sharp rise in US for young people & immigrants.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
50 days ago
icon
Img
Job openings in US is on a steady down trend.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
50 days ago
icon
Img
Ratio of job openings to unemployed workers in US is at a 5 year low.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
51 days ago
icon
Img
US job openings came in above forecast last month after May’s reading was revised higher, defying a recent trend of a gradual softening in the labor market. Available positions edged lower to 8.18 million from a upwardly revised 8.23 million reading in the prior month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, known as JOLTS, showed Tuesday. The June figure exceeded most estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. In our weekly report released on 28th July, we had expected to come lower at 8.03MN.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
51 days ago
icon
Img
US consumer confidence rose in July as improving expectations for the economy and labor market offset bleaker views of current conditions. The US Conference Board’s gauge increased to 100.3 from a downwardly revised 97.8 in June, data out Tuesday showed. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a reading of 99.7. In our weekly report released on 28th July, we had mentioned that we expected it to come between 100-101 levels.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
55 days ago
icon
Img
Consumer spending grew at a slower pace in June due to a pullback on durable goods (-0.2% vs. 1.5% prior), mainly new motor vehicles (-5.1% vs. 3.6% prior). Spending on nondurable goods accelerated to a still-sluggish 0.2% (vs. a flat reading prior) as consumers searched for discounts and spent on necessities like pharmaceutical and other medical products.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
55 days ago
icon
Img
Super core PCE came at 0.2% mom in June vs a upwardly revised 0.18% in May.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
55 days ago
icon
Img
Core inflation very much in line with Fed's target.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
55 days ago
icon
Img
The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying US inflation rose at a tame pace in June and consumer spending remained healthy, encouraging signs for officials looking to cool inflation without breaking the economy. The so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out volatile food and energy items, increased 0.2% from May. From a year ago, it rose 2.6%, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data out Friday. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose 0.2%, while May’s increase was revised higher. The saving rate fell to 3.4%, the lowest since December 2022, suggesting consumers have less firepower to ramp up spending in the coming months. A Philadelphia Fed report published earlier in the week showed credit card delinquencies are on the rise.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
55 days ago
icon
Img
Core PCE simulations till end CY24
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
56 days ago
icon
Img
Adjusted for inflation, wages are the lowest in US currently.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
56 days ago
icon
Img
US Gross domestic product for Q2CY24 increased at a 2.8% annualized rate after rising 1.4% in the previous period. This was much higher than the 2% market estimates. The economy’s main growth engine — personal spending — rose 2.3%, also more than forecast. A closely watched measure of underlying inflation rose 2.9%, easing from the first quarter but still above forecast, the Bureau of Economic Analysis report showed Thursday.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
57 days ago
icon
Img
The weak Euro-area PMI survey for July released today creates a downside risk to the GDP forecast of the European Central Bank. The headline reading dropped to 50.1 in July from 50.9 in June, coming in below the median forecast of economists.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
58 days ago
icon
Img
US core PCE in a smooth downtrend.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
60 days ago
icon
Img
New Home Inventories are at record highs similar to 2008 levels.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
65 days ago
icon
Img
Solid US retail sales data today indicates that the economy’s main driver is still holding up as inflation recedes and the Federal Reserve nears a start to rate cuts.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
65 days ago
icon
Img
Freight rates not looking good.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
66 days ago
icon
Img
Based on the June CPI and PPI, forecasters who map out the PCE expect core prices rose 0.17% in June, which would hold the 12-month rate at 2.6%. The six-month annualized rate would tick up to 3.3% and the three-month annualized rate would fall to 2.1%
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
66 days ago
icon
Img
US CPI components trajectory.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
66 days ago
icon
Img
Chinese economy grew only 4.7% in Q2CY24 against mkt estimates of 5%. CNH should remain under pressure.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
67 days ago
icon
Img
Disinflation narrative looks solid this time with OERs and Primary rent falling as well.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
69 days ago
icon
Img
US consumer sentiment unexpectedly declined to the lowest level in eight months in early July as high prices continued to weigh on Americans’ views of their finances and the economy. The Univ of Michigan sentiment index fell to 66 in July from 68.2, according to the preliminary reading from the University of Michigan. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a slight increase to 68.5.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
70 days ago
icon
Img
What a data release today in US CPI for June. Super core 2nd consecutive month -ve. OERs finally falling. Shelter prices, which is the largest category within services, climbed 0.2%, the smallest gain since August 2021. Owners’ equivalent rent — a subset of shelter, which is the biggest individual component of the CPI — climbed 0.3%, also the tamest in three years. Exactly in line with our preview of US CPI that core might fall to -.1 mom. UST yields lower by 12-15bps across the curve.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
70 days ago
icon
Img
Based on tomorrow’s estimate for PPI, the cpi ppi spread would be falling to 0.7pp, from 3.9pp at the start of the year.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
70 days ago
icon
Img
Atlanta fed GDP GDP growth for Q2CY24 now almost constant at 1.5%
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
71 days ago
icon
Img
US bankruptcy filings in June 2024 are higher than even June 2020!!
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
73 days ago
icon
Img
US consumers’ near-term inflation expectations declined for the second straight month in June as Americans lowered their outlook for how much they expect home prices and the cost of other goods to rise over the next year. Consumers expect prices will climb at an annual rate of 3% over the next year, down from 3.2% in May, a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey showed. The shift shows short-term inflation expectations returned to the level that held steady from December until April, when they jumped to 3.3%.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
75 days ago
icon
Img
UK unemployment is a multi month high. Either a fiscal of monetary solution is likely soon.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
75 days ago
icon
Img
June CPI might further the disinflation narrative with headline cpi coming at 0.1% and core cpi coming at 0.1%.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
76 days ago
icon
Img
ISM Services just melted down for June.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
76 days ago
icon
Img
UR almost to trigger Sahm rule for recession!!
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
76 days ago
icon
Img
With temp demand so low, we know where we are headed in nfps.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
76 days ago
icon
Img
US Labour force is expanding rapidly.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
76 days ago
icon
Img
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
76 days ago
icon
Img
Massive slowdown in employment yet S&P keeps making new highs!! The median time it takes for an unemployed worker to find a job rose to 9.8 weeks, the most since February 2022, according to Bloomberg News. On top of that, the number of temporary employees on payrolls tumbled by 48,900 in June, the most since April 2021. And S&P yet makes new high!!!
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
76 days ago
icon
Img
With AHEs now moderating to 3.9%, we are not far away from pre COVID 3.2% levels. Likely impact is that personal income growth might slow materially now.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
76 days ago
icon
Img
If one removed the top 2, which can happen any month now, nfps will fall to 50k.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
76 days ago
icon
Img
Employment nos are actually worse than the below graph.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
76 days ago
icon
Img
The headline NFP no keeps on getting revised lower most of the times. This time Apr+May have been revised lower by 110k. With UR at 4.05 Sahm rule is almost triggered. With IJCs at 235k weekly, UR at 4.1 now (June SEP projection had UR at 4.1 by Dec), employment situation is really worsening. If one removed the govt additions, it's a sub par no. Health care can't keep on adding infinite no of employees forever. Professional & business services saw a massive fall of 49k.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
76 days ago
icon
Img
Container freight costs are rapidly increasing.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
78 days ago
icon
Img
This is the second time this year the ISM Services gauge has fallen into contractionary territory — a rare development in the indicator’s 28-year history. Overall, such instability suggests the economy’s post-pandemic growth engine has started to sputter amid Fed rate hikes.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
78 days ago
icon
Img
Recurring applications for US jobless benefits rose for a ninth straight week in the longest stretch since 2018, indicating a growing number of people are having difficulty finding a new job. Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, increased to 1.86 million in the week ended June 22, the highest since November 2021, according to Labor Department data released Wednesday. First-time claims rose by 4,000 to 238,000 last week.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
78 days ago
icon
Img
Job openings 3MMA continue to fall.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
78 days ago
icon
Img
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
78 days ago
icon
Img
The layoff rate for private sector firms ticked up to 1.2% in May from 1.1% in April. The hiring rate also rose by one tenth, to 4.0% The quit rate was unchanged at 2.4%
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
78 days ago
icon
Img
Job openings were revised down for April and held steady in May. The vacancy-to-unemployed ratio fell to 1.22 in May, the lowest since before the pandemic.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
79 days ago
icon
Img
We are fast approaching UR north of 4.1% by a significant margin.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
79 days ago
icon
Img
Jolts keeps on surprising
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
79 days ago
icon
Img
Macro surprises have definitely turned -ve for most of the economies. But how long before sth breaks. We are still far away from that inflection point. Till then higher for longer & then a sudden bottomless fall.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
80 days ago
icon
Img
YoY CPI country wise & region wise.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
80 days ago
icon
Img
CRE not looking good. Delayed due to private debt support but internals very poor.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
82 days ago
icon
Img
Drewery World Freight index has again shot up, implying shipping freight rates are off the charts. Reason being China is dumping exports like ath, pushing up shipping freight prices. It should start reflecting in goods inflation in a month or two.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
83 days ago
icon
Img
OERs still elevated and unlikely to fall bcs new rentals continue to remain elevated.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
83 days ago
icon
Img
Atlanta Fed GDP tracker showing a slight bump down.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
83 days ago
icon
Img
Tokyo CPI more than expected. Keeping in play boj rate hike in July meeting. industrial production was higher too.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
84 days ago
icon
Img
Credit card spending significant!!
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
85 days ago
icon
Img
A major source of disinflation in H2CY23 and H1CY24 has been goods disinflation. But that's unlikely to sustain going forward.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
85 days ago
icon
Just like US, today's Australian cpi data showed impact due to higher rentals. Now this higher for longer regime globally discourages home buyers bcs of high mortgage rates. Hence rentals keep on being elevated. Hence core cpi unlikely to come down any time soon. Hence rates will stay higher. Hence OER stays higher. It's an endless circle of higher rates, higher rentals, higher core cpi.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
85 days ago
icon
Img
Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer suggested earlier this month that budgetary pressures might require cutting the sample size of the Current Population Survey (CPS) by 5,000 households. She emphasized the cut wasn’t a done deal — but left the impression it’s the leading option to resolve the survey’s near-term money crunch. The CPS provides the statistical foundation for monthly estimates of the unemployment rate and other key indicators of US labor-market health. The survey’s ongoing viability is essential to myriad decision makers — including the Federal Reserve, fiscal policy makers, investors, and state and local governments, to name a few.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
85 days ago
icon
Img
The labor differential data within yesterday’s June Conference Board Consumer Confidence rose for the first time since January. That coupled with other survey data may signal the worries about clouds gathering in the jobs market may be unfounded -- a situation that could once again wreak havoc on bullish bond positions. Labor Differential Rises for First Time Since January : Jobs market may be strengthening. Consumers’ view of the current labor market improved in June, according to yesterday’s consumer confidence data. Some 38.1% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” up from 37% in May, while fewer said jobs were “hard to get.” The difference between these two -- a metric closely followed by economists to gauge labor-market strength -- rose for the first time since the start of the year. Those consumer views are in line with Fed surveys, which show improved hiring in June. Five of eight Fed surveys released this month signaled rises in employment. And S&P Global’s preliminary June PMI report showed service sector payrolls rose to the greatest extent for five months and manufacturing payrolls were increased at the sharpest rate for 21 months.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
85 days ago
icon
Img
Credit card deliquencies higher than previous COVID levels.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
85 days ago
icon
Img
Stagflation more certain than ever!!
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
85 days ago
icon
Img
The preliminary reading for the UMich gauge of expectations for future income and business conditions already stands at the lowest level this year. Any further deterioration risks bringing about the peak in stocks that looks to be lurking around the corner.
image
Comments
image
Admin iconGold User
87 days ago
icon
Img
Just a reminder: Strong growth today is no guarantee that a recession is not imminent. The US economy grew by 2.5% in in the fourth quarter of 2007, just as the Great Recession was beginning.
image
Comments
image
Admin
141 days ago
icon
ISM Manufacturing prices paid component shot up to highest since June'22. ISM employment also high. JOLTS coming lower implying labour demand supply coming into balance. But otherwise stagflation story picking pace on US economy.
image
Comments