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Admin iconGold User
11 days ago
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BOE has cut it's bond portfolio by almost 190 BN GBP.
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Admin iconGold User
11 days ago
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Central Bank decisions this week.
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Admin iconGold User
13 days ago
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US Fed balance sheet now 7.1 TN USD from its peak of 9 TN USD.
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Admin iconGold User
15 days ago
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The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point for a third consecutive meeting, and reiterated that it’s “reasonable” to expect more easing to come if inflation keeps decelerating. Policymakers led by Governor Tiff Macklem lowered the benchmark overnight rate to 4.25% on Wednesday, as widely expected by markets and economists.
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Admin iconGold User
25 days ago
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Fed Chair Powell's comments at Jackson Hole
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Admin iconGold User
27 days ago
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“If we are able to confirm a rising certainty that the economy and prices will stay in line with forecasts, there’s no change to our stance that we’ll continue to adjust the degree of easing,”BOJ Chair Ueda said in response to questions in Japanese parliament. We believe it's unlikely before Dec meeting considering local Japanese PM election.
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Admin iconGold User
34 days ago
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Summary of recent commentary from Fed's members:
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Admin iconGold User
35 days ago
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Rate cut probabilities for major Central banks
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Admin iconGold User
35 days ago
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Near term Central Bank meetings & their rate projections
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Admin iconGold User
35 days ago
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St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem becomes the latest Fed speaker to signal he can support a rate cut. Key points from his remarks on Thursday morning: • The U.S. labor market "is no longer overheated" • The labor markets "no longer pose a clear upside risk to inflation" • Recent data has bolstered my confidence that inflation will return to target • Absent new shocks, risks of inflation rising has declined, while risks to unemployment to increase • "The time may be nearing when an adjustment to policy may be appropriate"
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Admin iconGold User
36 days ago
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RBNZ cuts by 25bps & gives a dovish guidance. We mentioned this in our report dated 11th Aug.
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Admin iconGold User
36 days ago
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Atlanta Fed's Bostic on rate cuts: "I'm willing to wait, but it's coming." "I want to see a little more data." "We need to make sure the trend is real." "We want to be absolutely sure." "It would be really bad if we started cutting rates and we had to turn around and raise them again."
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Admin iconGold User
42 days ago
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If the Federal Reserve delivers the interest rate reductions the market expects, then Sonia and Euribor look too high.
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Admin iconGold User
43 days ago
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"The last thing the BoJ wants is to be blamed for triggering one of the sharpest market selloffs that followed its hawkish July 31 policy decision... Now the BoJ is clearly under pressure to respond to the market selloff and to justify its hawkish policy decision" - UBS
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Admin iconGold User
43 days ago
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The yen tumbled past 147 after BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said the central bank won’t raise rates if markets are unstable. Recent moves have been “extremely volatile” and the central bank needs to keep policy easy for the time being, he said in his first public remarks following the market rout. The 2nd round of carry trades unwind is stopped for the time being. +Ve for risk assets. The yen carry trade unwinding among speculative investors was 50% to 60% done so remaining should hold on.
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Admin iconGold User
44 days ago
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A brief history of inter meeting Fed moves Nine emergency rate cuts since 1987
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Admin iconGold User
44 days ago
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The RBA stressed in its forecasts that there is "substantial uncertainty" and "upside risks" to inflation. Suggests it retains a tightening bias will be retained until inflation data are more confidently heading towards target, one print for Q3 probably won't provide this
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Admin iconGold User
44 days ago
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RBA leaves rates on hold as expected, it notes "Policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive until the Board is confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range." No hikes but cuts seem some way off too irrespective of what's priced in elsewhere.
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Admin iconGold User
49 days ago
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The Bank of England cut interest rates for the first time since early 2020 and signaled further cautious reductions ahead. The vote was 5-4.
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Admin iconGold User
50 days ago
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Fed Chair Powell's Quote of the Day: "The downside risks to the employment mandate are real now.”
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Admin iconGold User
50 days ago
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The key takeaways is Sep is a done deal for the 1st cut if macros evolve as they are right now. 2nd they did discuss cutting rates in today's meeting too & it was a real discussion. 3rd we have broken key levels on 10yr UST today i.e 4.15% & 5yr UST at 4%. 2yr UST now heads towards 4%. We continue to see both Aug NFP & Aug CPI data push yields lower & dxy higher.
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Admin iconGold User
50 days ago
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After seeing today's ECI (Employment Cost Index) data we are expecting a Fed rate cut tonight. Our decision is based upon the timing of today's meeting. Including today there are 4 meetings of Fed left in REMCY24. assuming there are minimum 2 cuts in CY24, Sep looks too hot for a rate cut by Fed in a deeply divisive US hot election peak season. But then waiting till Nov implies risk of loosing the much desired soft landing as employment data & consumer spending are extremely weak now. Inflation now is on a sustained downtrend with the much expected fall in rental inflation happening too. So does Fed loose ath by cutting tonight. It does not. Infact it wins time to navigate through the US elections. Also the first rate cut is an insurance cut always as it takes time to percolate in economy & is not inflationary if well communicated that the road ahead is still data dependent. Hence we see a decent chance of Fed cutting by 25bps tonight. The only issue is it has not been communicated. But does not a central bank have the right to surprise mkts occasionally. Just to keep in mind, in Dec'23 Fed DOTS was confident of 3 rate cuts for CY24 when fwd inflation projection was much more circumspect than now.
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Admin iconGold User
50 days ago
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The QE reduction by BOJ looks a little less compared to what the markets expected. Markets were expecting 500bn jpy-1tn JPY reduction per quarter. But BoJ did only 400 bn JPY.
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Admin iconGold User
50 days ago
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Boj looks hawkish for the 1st time in many quarters.The bank is promising, in writing, further hikes if things continue -- that’s a first, and as hawkish as we’ve seen the bank under Ueda.
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Admin iconGold User
50 days ago
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Looks a very gradual reduction in QE so JPY again back to 153+ after touching 151.65
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Admin iconGold User
50 days ago
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BOJ: Monthly JGB Buying to Be 3T Yen in Jan-Mar 2026
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Admin iconGold User
50 days ago
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Bank of Japan Raises Policy Rate to 0.25%
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Admin iconGold User
50 days ago
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Markets implied rate cuts for fed in REM CY24
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Admin iconGold User
51 days ago
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BANK OF JAPAN TO CONSIDER ADDITIONAL INTEREST RATE HIKE, INCLUDING RAISING INTEREST RATES TO AROUND 0.25% - NHK
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Admin iconGold User
56 days ago
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The People’s Bank of China unexpectedly lowered the rate on its one-year policy loans by the most since April 2020, following a surprise reduction to a key short-term rate to boost slowing economic activity. The central bank lowered the rate of medium-term lending facility by 20 basis points to 2.3%, according to a statement Thursday. The rate was last lowered in August 2023 and the cut followed the PBOC’s trim of the seven-day reserve repo rate by 10 basis points on Monday.
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Admin iconGold User
56 days ago
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BOJ is likely to hike in near term. The question is when and by how much in total by end CY24.
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Admin iconGold User
59 days ago
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While the end of the Fed’s quantitative tightening is coming into view, the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Bank of England are set to shrink their balance sheets by a combined $2.6 trillion through 2026. There is another $450 billion in roll-off from the Fed through April 2025, adding up to about $2.2 trillion since early 2022. That total QT is the equivalent of raising the federal funds rate by about 29 basis points over three years, pushing up 10-year yields by 6 bps.
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Admin iconGold User
59 days ago
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The People’s Bank of China cut a key short-term policy rate for the first time in almost a year as it steps up support for growth while shifting toward a new policy benchmark. The seven-day reverse repo rate is lowered by 10 basis points to 1.7%, the PBOC said in a statement Monday. The move aims to optimize the open market operation mechanism and increase financial support for the economy, it said.
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Admin iconGold User
65 days ago
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Major Banks view on Fed rate call
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Admin iconGold User
68 days ago
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Central Bank Watch Globally
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Admin iconGold User
72 days ago
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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in his senate hearing that “more good data” would strengthen confidence that inflation is moving down toward the US central bank’s 2% target, and recent readings point to “modest further progress” on prices. In testimony prepared for a Senate hearing Today, Powell warned that lowering interest rates too little or too late could put the economy and the labor market at risk. “Elevated inflation is not the only risk we face,” he told lawmakers on the first of two days of congressional testimony. “Reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.”
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Admin iconGold User
75 days ago
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Fed plays very neutral in US election years.
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Admin iconGold User
76 days ago
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Markets expect more than Fed dots for cuts as employment conditions worsen.
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Admin iconGold User
78 days ago
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Powell: "Inflation now shows signs of resuming its disinflationary trend." "We are getting back on a disinflationary path." "We've made a lot of progress." September cut? "I'm not going to be landing on any specific dates here today."
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Admin iconGold User
85 days ago
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Fed's QT has slowed significantly. That why financial conditions are so loose.
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Admin iconGold User
85 days ago
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Markets are trying their luck 8th time in last 1yr to front run Fed cuts. But unless Employment worsens, don't think they can get lucky.
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Admin
141 days ago
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The tail risk of any change in forward guidance has not materialised as they still say cuts. No mention of a hike. So unless Powell changes uberly hawkish in press con, yields should drift lower.
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Admin
141 days ago
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So the better demand supply equation in USTs now look a coordinated action between US treasury & Fed. They are not comfortable with long end yields so elevated. Buybacks, more than expected QT taper. Short term 4.65-4.70 is the top till Fridays nfp no.
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Admin
141 days ago
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Importantly, the FOMC didn’t change the forward guidance at all. The guidance has a soft, implicit nod that the next move will be a cut by saying it won’t reduce rates until it gets greater confidence on inflation moving to target. Nth to see on hike if at all possible.
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Admin
141 days ago
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QT Taper in USTs more than mkt expectations. Most banks expected 30 bn usd reduction in per month sale of UST. Now the reduction is 35bn usd per month
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Admin
141 days ago
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Key part: “The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”
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Admin
141 days ago
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Fed Holds Benchmark Rate in 5.25%-5.5% Target Range
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Admin
141 days ago
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Fed: Lack of Further Progress Toward 2% Goal in Recent Months
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Admin
141 days ago
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Fed to Slow Pace of Balance-Sheet Runoff Starting in June
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Admin
141 days ago
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Fed Cuts Treasury Runoff Cap to $25B, Keeps MBS Cap at $35B
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Admin
141 days ago
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We will be doing a live coverage of today's Fed meeting as well as Fed Chair's Powell Press Conference!! This will be our 1st live coverage of a fed event. Looking forward to it.
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