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Admin iconPlatinum User
100 days ago
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Container freight cost now cooling down from their Q2CY24 highs
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Admin iconPlatinum User
103 days ago
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US real wages are still growing fast. Aug saw 1.3% growth in real average hourly wages.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
103 days ago
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For the first time since 2020, both supply of SIngle family & multi family homes falling simulteniusly.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
107 days ago
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China state wide prices in longest decline since 1999.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
107 days ago
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China service sector woes continue.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
107 days ago
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Why on every parameter, Eurozone is in an anaemic state.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
107 days ago
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An excellent summary for current state of US economy.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
107 days ago
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Recession probabilities are priced maximum in rates & commodities.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
109 days ago
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US Consumer spending remains strong courtesy credit cards.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
109 days ago
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Sahm rule too does not portray a recession now.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
109 days ago
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Current US macro set up is unlike a recession.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
110 days ago
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CRE issues at forefront in REMCY24.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
115 days ago
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If China does not provide a fiscal stimulus, it risks failing growth targets for both CY24 & CY25.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
115 days ago
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August started with vix at 65 & is ending with rally across almost all asset class. Too good to be true.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
117 days ago
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*UBS downgraded its forecast for China’s growth this year and next, citing a deeper-than-expected property market slump* The investment bank now expects gross domestic product to expand 4.6% in 2024, down from an earlier estimate of 4.9%. For next year, UBS sees growth at 4%, down from 4.6% previously. Despite China easing its policies toward the property market since the end of 2022 — including reduced down-payment requirements, lower mortgage rates and fewer restrictions on home purchases — the implementation of the measures has been slow, with limited impact, according to the bank.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
118 days ago
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Travel spending in US has reduced but still remains high compared to previous COVID years.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
118 days ago
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US housing affordability looks stretched.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
119 days ago
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Lower rates in US have started to improve housing affordability, but have done little so far to boost homebuyer confidence, which fell to an all-time survey low this month. Some homebuyers may be looking for more certainty regarding Fed policy, the economy and the 2024 US presidential election to improve confidence about the trajectory of home prices.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
124 days ago
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After having sailed through uncharted waters repeatedly over the past two decades, the developed world’s top central banks are entering a new stretch: For the first time, they’re engaging in joint quantitative tightening. Last month’s decision by the Bank of Japan to steadily shrink its portfolio of bond holdings in coming years means it’s now engaging in balance-sheet contraction alongside the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England. While QT, as it’s known, is different in each jurisdiction, it involves a withdrawal of the liquidity that central bankers pumped into their economies during the pandemic crisis by buying bonds.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
124 days ago
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The tale of two neighbours. That's why Canada needs more & faster cuts than US.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
126 days ago
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US exceptionalism continues to rule.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
126 days ago
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Service share in US economy expanding over manufacturing.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
126 days ago
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US consumers slowing down discretionary purchases
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Admin iconPlatinum User
127 days ago
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Even after a volatile first fortnight of Aug, most of mkt forces believe in a soft landing for US economy.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
127 days ago
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US Fiscal Deficit over last 3 decades
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Admin iconPlatinum User
127 days ago
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1st week selloff in global equities don't look so alarming considering its breadth.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
128 days ago
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US imports may have peaked in July, a hypothesis that matches up with a recent decline in spot shipping rates.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
128 days ago
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According to data released this month by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, US container imports through major ports this year will reach 24.9 million measured in 20-foot equivalent units, up 12% from last year and close to 2021 and 2022 levels that topped 25 million.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
128 days ago
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The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, which account for roughly a third of all US container imports, had their third-strongest month ever in July, just shy of an all-time high reached in May 2021. Reason could be stocking of Chinese goods before tariffs hit.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
128 days ago
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Recession probability now being reduced 20% from GS
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Admin iconPlatinum User
128 days ago
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GS reduces the recession play.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
129 days ago
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UK is enjoying the return of real spending power.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
129 days ago
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Why we are +ve on GBP: Strong performance in the second quarter meant the UK enjoyed the best growth in the Group of Seven nations in the first half of 2024, outstripping the US and well ahead of other European countries. Official data this week also showed that workers were hired at the quickest pace since November, reducing the jobless rate, while inflation rose less than expected.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
129 days ago
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This week delivered the biggest concerted rally of 2024 with stocks, bonds, credit rising in tandem, according to Bloomberg-compiled data tracking popular ETFs. The S&P 500 scored its best weekly gain for the year of 3.9%, snapping a four-week losing streak. The world’s largest Treasury exchange-traded fund rallied about 1% as investment-grade and junk bonds scored similar wins. Gold climbed to $2,500 for the first time. The VIX dropped below 15 after rising above 65 at the height of the meltdown on 5th Aug.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
131 days ago
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US Small business loan availability just dropped to its lowest level in nearly 11 years. Usually it happens before the onset of recession. It might significantly impact payrolls with 1-2 quarters delay. So we expect a recession to start showing in higher URs post OCT NFP as well as lower consumer spending.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
131 days ago
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"Based on data from immigration court cases, we estimate that net immigration surged from 100k/month in early 2022 to a peak of 350k/month in late 2023 but slowed sharply to 160k/month over the past few months" - Goldman
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Admin iconPlatinum User
132 days ago
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Traders have cooled a bit on their expectations for interest rate cuts, particularly in September, where the odds of a larger 50-basis-point reduction are now less than 50%. That compares with a greater-than-even chance earlier this week.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
132 days ago
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Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida won’t run for a second term as leader of the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party in September, opening the door for a new party member to take over the post of premier. Kyodo News and national broadcaster NHK on Wednesday cited government sources as saying Kishida will not run in the LDP race. Kishida is due to hold a news conference at 11:30 a.m., Kyodo reported.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
132 days ago
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The choice right now is binary. The US bond market which is shouting recession looking at its rate cut probabilities & a US credit and equity markets that look disconnected from US rate markets because their elevated valuations mean soft landing. One of them is clearly mispriced. We believe if the next US household survey for the month of August is similarly weak to the July one, reinforcing the recession thesis, equity and credit markets would need to weaken significantly to catch up with rate markets.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
133 days ago
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When you see the above chart, you know US consumer loan deliquencies are going to reach escape velocity soon. It's a matter of time before it does. 60dpd loans in mortgages/auto loans/personal loans are already at 10yr highs.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
133 days ago
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With concerns increasing about the potential for an escalation of Middle East tensions, we feel that Gold, Swiss franc & JPY look to be clear winners. They have obvious potential to accelerate gains in the event of Iranian retaliation, and would be vulnerable to some weakness should there be a repeat of the April experience when Tehran ultimately avoided sparking a wider war. Brent has already jumped by more than 3% Monday but its outlook is also heavily tied to weaker demand as the global economic outlook weakens. We believe an Iranian attack is almost certain this week. Our view stems from the fact that US has sent 2 air craft carrier ships (USS Abraham Lincoln & USS Theodore Roosevelt), 1 nuclear powered submarine with 150 guided missiles(USS Georgia)& F-35C fighter jet squadrons. What is most interesting is the presence of F-22 Raptors which is the premier USAF 5th generation fighter. Either US is posturing hard enough to deter Iran from attacking Israel OR US is sure that a large scale Iranian attack is imminent.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
133 days ago
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Israel’s sovereign debt was cut by one notch by Fitch Ratings, which kept a negative outlook on the credit as continued military conflict weighs on the country’s public finances. The ratings firm lowered the country’s score to A from A+, citing “continued war” and geopolitical risk as drivers, according to a statement Monday.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
134 days ago
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The hourly labor market is beginning to show some of the same signs of strain as the white-collar economy, a shift that could have broad consequences for the U.S. economy and millions of American workers. There are plenty of jobs but the hiring frenzy is over.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
134 days ago
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The US president’s Inflation Reduction Act and Chips and Science Act offered more than $400bn in tax credits, loans and grants to spark development of a US cleantech and semiconductor supply chain. However, of the projects worth more than $100mn, a total of $84bn have been delayed for between two months and several years, or paused indefinitely. (Source FT)
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Admin iconPlatinum User
135 days ago
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UBS estimates that tariffs (proposed by Trump if he wins elections) of 60% on U.S. imports of Chinese goods would hold back GDP growth by about 2.5 percentage points in the 12 months after imposition, though the drag could be just 1.5% points if China takes offsetting actions.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
136 days ago
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An extremely wild ride last week in global markets.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
136 days ago
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Will the calm return or is it a sign of IVs returning with a bang.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
137 days ago
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Are we put of the woods. One week seems eternity.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
137 days ago
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Nearly four-fifths of economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict the Federal Reserve will trim rates to a range of 5% to 5.25% at its September 17-18 meeting, with most of the rest predicting a larger reduction. The median forecast shows just 10% odds for a rare move to adjust rates prior to the scheduled gathering.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
137 days ago
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Market is now taking bad news as bad news.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
137 days ago
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Housing expenses are the largest expense for Americans today.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
137 days ago
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The spread between the two-year and 10-year US Treasury yield can be a useful trading signal for the S&P 500 Index but timing is key. The indicator briefly turned positive on Monday, after last Friday’s weak US labor market report triggered an equity rout. The return of a positive yield curve after a period of inversion can indicate a sharp economic slowdown and a stock correction.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
139 days ago
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The shrinking US raises are the latest sign—alongside last week’s lackluster jobs report—that workers have lost much of the leverage they’ve had with bosses in the past few years. With hiring now slowing sharply, employers are controlling payroll costs by cutting or freezing bonuses, doling out fewer and smaller merit increases, business leaders and compensation consultants say. Among 1,900 U.S. companies polled in the second quarter, nearly half said they had downsized their budgets for salary increases this year. That has lowered the median raise to 4.1% this year from 4.5% in 2023. They plan to spend even less next year, projecting a median raise of 3.9% in 2025, according to employer-advisory firm WTW, which conducted the survey.  (Source WSJ)
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Admin iconPlatinum User
139 days ago
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In US recessions from 1947 to 2007-09, the unemployment rate rose gradually in the early months and then increased substantially. On average, the peak unemployment rate is almost 3 percentage points above the pre-recession level. The increase in the unemployment rate over the past year fits within the range of earlier recessions.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
139 days ago
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We think that the bar for inter meeting cuts is high – a stock market decline of 15%-20% won’t be enough to prompt emergency cuts. For that, the Fed likely would need to see a meaningful widening in credit spreads, and evidence of trouble in global dollar funding. The current situation is far from that.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
139 days ago
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From Bloomberg: Assuming the FOMC reverts back to the view that the longer-term neutral rate is 2.5% — and assuming our forecast of a 4.5% unemployment rate for 4Q is correct — our estimated reaction function suggests the Fed should have cut by 37 bps by the time of the June 11-12 meeting, and by 70 bps by the time of the Sept. 17-18 meeting. The policy rule says the Fed should cut by a total of 100 bps this year.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
139 days ago
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The recent deterioration in labor-market data and the sharp market correction have led many market participants – and, most likely, several FOMC officials — to rethink the restrictiveness of policy. That may sow doubts about the idea that the neutral rate is substantially higher than 2.5%.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
139 days ago
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Australian Households are facing major mortgage interest cost issues.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
139 days ago
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GS says US financial conditions have tightened only by 19bps since past week's volatility
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Admin iconPlatinum User
139 days ago
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The US economy's exceptionalism is there since 2021.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
139 days ago
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About 1 in 10 US credit card holders are 3 months behind on payments
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Admin iconPlatinum User
140 days ago
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The Great Unwind Across Risk Assets Globally.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
141 days ago
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The current risk off environment globally is a result of carry trades bring unwound rather than any actual recession in US. While there is no doubt that US economy is slowing down, the rates fall after nfp is way beyond actual data. Today ISM services confirmed that. We continue to believe in 25bps cut each in next 3 meetings in REMCY24.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
141 days ago
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One of the central causes of the current unwind: the BOJ running ultra-loose policy when the rest of the world was raising rates at one of the fastest paces seen. Hedge funds are one of the big players in the carry trade. And the styles with likely the most exposure and therefore driving much of the volatility are macro funds, CTAs and other systematic funds. Of the main types of fund tracked by Hedge Fund Research (HFR), these are the types with the most significant short exposure to the yen.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
141 days ago
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Recession chances increased but we need to wait for Aug NFP data.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
141 days ago
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GS has raised the recension probability to 25% in US in next 1yr
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Admin iconPlatinum User
142 days ago
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Shipping volume from China’s ports in the first half was 8.5% higher than 2023, with container freight rates surging by a factor of four, according to NCFI. Exports - from cars to steel to consumer goods - soared.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
142 days ago
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Volatility is surging, with the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, leaping as high as 29.66 on Friday, a level it hasn’t touched since March 2023. And the so-called VVIX Index, which measures the volatility of the VIX, is hovering around its highest levels since March 2022, when the Fed’s hiking cycle began.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
144 days ago
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Recession still looks less likely than not before the end of the year. Payrolls’ annual growth continues to decline and remain above zero, while the other main indicators the NBER uses to call a recession are also still growing. All four of these have been in contraction in almost all postwar recessions.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
145 days ago
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While Fed Chair yesterday said that employment conditions are normalising, is this time different. We believe it is. Fed is way behind the curve this time on evaluating real employment conditions.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
146 days ago
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The core constituency of Democrats are re energized. More than one-third of voters in the seven battlegrounds said they’re much more likely to vote now that the contest is between Trump and Harris, and the numbers rose to 49% and 44% among Black and Hispanic voters respectively. Almost two-thirds of Black voters said they’re now somewhat or much more likely to cast ballots in November.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
146 days ago
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Kamala Harris has wiped out Donald Trump’s lead across seven battleground states, as the vice president rides a wave of enthusiasm among young, Black and Hispanic voters, according to the latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
146 days ago
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Delinquency rates in US office CMBS loans is at a 8 year high.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
146 days ago
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US home foreclosure rates are at a 9 year high
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Admin iconPlatinum User
146 days ago
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US private sector employment nos are extremely weak.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
146 days ago
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If Starbucks coffe sales are down, one can estimate the consumer strength in US
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Admin iconPlatinum User
146 days ago
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Fed finally getting it's much desired goal: the perfect soft landing
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Admin iconPlatinum User
146 days ago
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US fiscal deficit is very high currently in a time of economic expansion.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
146 days ago
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If it was not for US govt payroll boost, monthly NFPs might have been -ve by now.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
150 days ago
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Interest rates for credit cards in US rose to 22.76% in May, just shy of a record in data back to 1994, Fed data show. Some 2.6% of credit card balances were 60 days past due in the first quarter, reaching a series high in data from the Philadelphia Fed that goes back to 2012.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
150 days ago
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The US jobs market, which bucked expectations of a slowdown time and again despite high rates, is finally showing signs of cooling. Hiring has slowed from the overheated levels seen two years ago, and companies are posting fewer job openings. Employed Americans are quitting less, and those out of work are finding it harder to land a job. The number of people who have been out of work for 27 weeks or more, known as long-term unemployed, rose to 1.5 million in June, the most since 2017 with the exception of a temporary spike during the pandemic, according to Glassdoor.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
151 days ago
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In US, average incentive packages offered on new vehicles rose 53 per cent year over year in June, according to Motor Intelligence, with manufacturers such as Hyundai, General Motors and Volkswagen offering cash back, low interest rates and price cuts to stimulate demand and clear inventories, which have marched higher since pandemic-era supply constraints eased. According to JD Power, a consumer analytics company, only 16.9 per cent of new cars sold above the manufacturer’s suggested retail price, down from 34.9 per cent last year. Manheim car index is falling like a knife as a result of these conditions.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
152 days ago
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The share of credit card balances past due reached a series high in Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia data back to 2012, adding to a variety of figures indicating emerging fissures in the US economy. Some 2.6% of credit card balances were 60 days past due in the first quarter, according to data published Wednesday. That’s up from a low of 1.1% reached in 2021, when consumers were bolstered by pandemic-era support programs.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
152 days ago
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The CTAs are yet not bullish on USTs to the extent they are on equities still. But this can quickly change.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
154 days ago
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US Car manufacturers and dealers are slashing prices to offset softening demand, as high interest rates dent US consumers’ appetite for new vehicles. Average incentive packages offered on new vehicles rose 53 per cent year over year in June, according to Motor Intelligence, with manufacturers such as Hyundai, General Motors and Volkswagen offering cash back, low interest rates and price cuts to stimulate demand and clear inventories, which have marched higher since pandemic-era supply constraints eased. According to JD Power, a consumer analytics company, only 16.9 per cent of new cars sold above the manufacturer’s suggested retail price, down from 34.9 per cent last year.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
155 days ago
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Currently it looks like Trump Trade is not USD positive as seen below. But it might change soon. Early Aug towards Mid Nov best time to put on long USD trades against Eur, CNH and MXN.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
155 days ago
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The no of times "Weak Demand" is being mentioned in US corporate earnings call is at levels of past significant crisis.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
155 days ago
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Admin iconPlatinum User
155 days ago
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And the inevitable happens finally. Our view was this would have happened after Israeli's PM visit to Congress on 24th. But it happened today itself. We expect VP Kamala Harris to be the Democratic candidate now against Trump.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
156 days ago
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Admin iconPlatinum User
156 days ago
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To fill the hole in their budgets, local governments across China have been turning to debt financing, selling more and more bonds, with most of them being bought by state-owned banks and local investors looking for guaranteed returns. In total (and excluding LGFVs), the central and local governments sold a record 20 trillion yuan worth of bonds in 2023, up a fifth from the year before. It looks likely to hit another record this year, with total sales up another 5% in the first half from the same period in 2023.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
156 days ago
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The ratio of Chinese tax income to the size of the economy is much lower than many comparable countries, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. China’s tax take in 2022 was a fifth the size of the economy, below the 34% average for the developed nations of the OECD. Excluding social security contributions, it is even weaker, hitting a record low of 13.8% in 2022 before rebounding slightly. As a partial remedy, officials have tried to bring in a nationwide property tax which could be levied by local governments.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
156 days ago
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Since the Chinese tax system was reformed in 1994, much of China’s tax revenue has been paid to the central government, with some of that money then being dispersed to the local governments. But local govts spend far more than what they get as tax revenues.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
156 days ago
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Chinese local gifts are in major fiscal hold. One key cause is the slump in the money they get from selling land to developers, which had been a source of funds to pay for local development. That revenue has fallen by double digits for two years through 2023, and in the first five months of this year it was less than half the level in the same period in 2021.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
156 days ago
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US auto-loan write-offs at banks were recently at the highest levels since 2011, Moody’s Analytics data shows.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
156 days ago
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Around 40% of US student-loan borrowers missed the first required payment, according to the U.S. Education Department.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
156 days ago
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US renters are falling behind on their debt payments at higher rates than homeowners.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
156 days ago
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US borrowers are increasingly falling behind, especially those who carry high balances. Delinquency rates for credit-card accounts rose above 3% in the first quarter, the highest level since 2011, Fed data shows. Around a third of balances for borrowers with nearly or completely maxed-out credit cards went into delinquency, according to the New York Fed.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
156 days ago
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The top 10% of US households by income, or those earning $245,000 or more a year, hold more than three-quarters of excess savings, according to Moody’s Analytics.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
156 days ago
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Years of higher inflation and interest rates have left US consumers mired in debt, even as overall economy looks doing just well.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
156 days ago
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France’s Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin said the minimum wage could be increased, opening the door to a key proposal of the leftist bloc that’s vying for influence over policy in the next government. Raising the floor on the basic wage known as the SMIC by around €200 ($217.64) to €1,600 a month net is a core proposal of the New Popular Front, which won the largest share of seats in a snap election two weeks ago, but not enough to govern alone.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
156 days ago
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UK service inflation might again rise beyond the comfort of BOE as UK risks a return to strikes and a shortage of nurses and teachers if it doesn’t grant above-inflation pay rises, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said, following reports of a fiscal hole as large as £10 billion ($12.9 billion) from public sector wage demands. Independent pay review bodies that represent more than 1.8 million teachers and National Health Service workers have recommended pay increases of about 5.5%, according to the Times, while the Labour government has budgeted for raises of only 3%.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
157 days ago
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Silence before the storm
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Admin iconPlatinum User
158 days ago
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*BIDEN'S FAMILY STARTS DISCUSSING HIS EXIT PLAN FROM RACE: NBC". We can expect more volatility in risk assets especially equities. Long end yields should push higher.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
159 days ago
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When economists give up, then only it appears full on. The much hated Recession.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
162 days ago
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Chinese Loan Outlook worsening significantly.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
162 days ago
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This is perhaps one of the best charts illustrating that China has been exporting its domestic excess savings and deflation to the rest of the world. During previous global economic downturns, China's export prices declined much less than global prices, suggesting that China actually played the role of demand of last resort, absorbing global excess savings thanks to its aggressive fiscal stimulus domestically aimed at high GDP targets. This time around, it is clear that China's role has completely changed, with growing weakness in domestic demand translating into a way sharper fall in export prices relative to the rest of the world. This implies a further fall in global good prices.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
163 days ago
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With today's failed assassination attempt on Trump, his approval ratings have further increased. Mexican peso, CNH likely first casualties.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
164 days ago
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China’s economic growth likely weakened in the second quarter, with headwinds adding pressure on Chinese leaders to lift confidence at a twice-a-decade policy meeting next week.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
164 days ago
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Chinese exports were strong for 2nd consecutive month. Implying a strong Q2 GDP growth for China.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
164 days ago
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China’s trade surplus hit a record high of $99 billion in June as exports surged and imports unexpectedly declined, raising the risk of the US and Europe stepping up efforts to shield their markets from Beijing.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
164 days ago
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Britain’s minimum wage increases are threatening to feed through to inflation and unintended consequences for employee benefits, putting Keir Starmer’s ambition to boost wages on a collision course with business groups and the Bank of England. Expect wage inflation to remain high. But will it stop BOE from cutting rates twice at least in CY24 considering a deteriorating economic outlook.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
164 days ago
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Distressed investors see one of the best opportunities in a generation to buy troubled US real estate assets as the commercial property crash continues to roil the market. Almost $1 trillion of debt linked to commercial real estate will mature this year in the US, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, and rising defaults as borrowers fail to repay will create more options for buyers of distressed assets.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
169 days ago
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France looks set for a long term grid lock. Final nos: Left or New Popular Front 178 seats, Macron's centrist 156 seats and Le Pen's NR got 143 seats
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Admin iconPlatinum User
170 days ago
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2nd round of French elections today. Very high participation rate.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
171 days ago
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We feel UK new govt is going to be extremely fiscally constrained as public debt levels are at multi decade highs as seen in chart above. The only solution to get out of the brexit shock which is still contributing -.4% to UK GDP, is to cut rates by BOE. We expect 3 cuts by BOE in CY24.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
171 days ago
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France holds the most important 2nd round of elections on 7th July. A RN majority does not augur well for fiscal but a hung parliament does not augur well for policy making.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
174 days ago
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All the way Trump!!
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Admin iconPlatinum User
178 days ago
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S&P 500 seasonality
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Admin iconPlatinum User
178 days ago
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BIDEN DIDNT LOOK GOOD AT ALL YESTERDAY IN THE 1ST PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
181 days ago
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Expected Change of Crop Yield Caused by Change in Temperature. *Source*:- Maged Daoud in Researchgate
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Admin iconPlatinum User
181 days ago
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Biden continues to look weak.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
181 days ago
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Most clients bullish on USTs. But we think they are in for a disappointment.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
183 days ago
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Cre deliquencies might rise further as forward contracts referencing the five-year interest rate in the next five years — a proxy for the market’s view of where US rates might end up — have stalled at 3.6%. While that’s down from last year’s peak of 4.5%, it’s still more than one full percentage higher than the average over the past decade and above the Fed’s own estimate of 2.75%.
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Admin
237 days ago
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US economy headed towards stagflation in all likelihood. European economy showing green shoots. ECB might go for the 1st rate cut in June but then by end CY24, ECB might have done 3-4 rate cuts compared to Fed's only 1.
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