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Admin iconPlatinum User
109 days ago
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Global net gold purchases by central banks reached 483 tonnes in the first half of 2024, the most on record.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
111 days ago
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OPEC+ is close to agreement on delaying a planned increase in oil production after prices plunged amid fragile demand and plentiful supplies. Key coalition members likely won’t go ahead with the scheduled hike of 180,000 barrels a day in October, according to delegates who asked not to be identified because the discussions are private. The rethink came after crude prices slumped below $73 a barrel earlier this week, reaching the lowest since late 2023, following downbeat economic data from China and the US, the biggest consumers.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
112 days ago
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China’s zinc smelters face pressure to make steeper output cuts as they struggle with weak demand and plummeting processing fees. Plants in the world’s top refiner already reduced production this year to cope with mounting losses. But that’s failed to arrest a sharp decline in spot treatment fees, which are now at minus $35 for each ton of imported concentrate.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
112 days ago
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Global oil markets face a surplus of more than 1 million barrels a day in the first quarter because demand growth is more than satisfied by a tide of new production from the US, Guyana and Brazil, according to the International Energy Agency. That figure stands to swell if the OPEC+ cartel led by Saudi Arabia presses on with plans to revive roughly 2 million barrels a day between October and late 2025.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
112 days ago
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On 15th April, we had record Gold at 2345 levels. CMP 2500. We expect it to test 3000 by Mar'25.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
112 days ago
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Goldman Sachs turns cautious on copper too. It slashes its 2025 price forecast from $15,000 to $10,000. "Copper rally delayed," it says. The copper boom narrative had some truth — and ample hogwash.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
113 days ago
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Europe’s economic growth outlook is one of the biggest challenges for European equities. Germany’s gross domestic product contracted in the second quarter, with sentiment particularly downbeat in the key industrial sector. Additionally, an uneven recovery in China — a crucial market for European industries such as luxury goods and automakers — has further weighed on earnings. Currently, data show analysts’ estimates for Stoxx 600 profits over a 12-month horizon have remained relatively flat since June, while S&P 500 forecasts continue to rise. Hence European stocks likely to under perform their US counterparts.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
113 days ago
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Silver has a close correlation with gold, and would benefit from a fierce rally in Gold prices. Correlations between the two since the start of the Fed’s tightening cycle suggest that a surge in gold to, say, $3,100 an ounce will send silver toward $38 per ounce, representing an upside of more than 30% from current levels. What happens if the Fed is unable to reduce rates as much as the traders are factoring in? If the central bank were to cut rates by, say, just 125 basis points, gold may settle around $2,711 an ounce. In this scenario, silver will climb to $33.11, still representing an upside of about 16%.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
113 days ago
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Central banks demand for gold was the highest in H1
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Admin iconPlatinum User
115 days ago
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OPEC+ IS LIKELY TO PROCEED WITH A PLANNED GRADUAL OIL PRODUCTION INCREASE FROM OCTOBER - SIX OPEC+ SOURCES SAY WTI CRUDE FALLS 3% AFTER OPEC+ OUTPUT HIKE REPORT
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Admin iconPlatinum User
119 days ago
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High interest rates have spurred hedge funds and physical oil players to slash up to $100 billion in futures positions and crude inventories in favor of US money markets.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
119 days ago
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Wall Street is beginning to sour on the outlook for crude next year, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley lowering price forecasts as global supplies increase, including potentially from OPEC+. The two banks now foresee global benchmark Brent averaging less than $80 a barrel in 2025, with Goldman’s revised forecast cut to $77, while Morgan Stanley sees futures ranging from $75 to $78. Both expect that the crude market will be in surplus, with prices trending lower over the 12 months.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
120 days ago
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Libya’s eastern government might halt oil output: Trouble has been brewing for a while in Libya and this move isn’t a total surprise. Previous Libyan oil blockades have lasted for months. Libyan oil output could fall by as much as 600k-700k bpd. This has led to today bid in crude, up by 2%.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
120 days ago
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All that glitters is Gold. Gold is set for a record rally towards 3000 levels.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
121 days ago
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Globally, manufacturing is contracting again after six months of expansion, according to data from JPMorgan Chase & Co.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
121 days ago
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Since nearing $90 a barrel in early July, oil futures have lost more than 10% as China’s faltering economy and expectations of a flood of new supply from the Americas eclipsed US summer driving demand and Middle East geopolitical tensions. Burgeoning fuelmaking capacity is eroding bumper profits for refineries, eroding their crude buying. Having been jammed in $75 to $90 a barrel range for most of the year, the direction of prices will now be heavily influenced by the OPEC+ cartel led by Saudi Arabia and Russia. The group faces an imminent decision on whether to revive idle production in a market that doesn’t appear to need the extra output.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
124 days ago
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Brent traded below $76 a barrel after a four-day slump, with selling pressure exacerbated by trend-following algorithmic traders. West Texas Intermediate was near $72. The sell off on Wednesday came even as figures showed US crude inventories fell to the lowest since January. Distillate and gasoline holdings also dropped.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
127 days ago
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Iron ore miners feel the pinch of Chinese property rout.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
128 days ago
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Gold at record highs. We know who is driving this demand.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
131 days ago
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Chinese steelmakers slashed output last month as woeful demand forced steep cuts on an industry contending with a collapse in margins. Steel production in July plunged about 9% on both the month and the year to 82.94 million tons, the lowest figure reported in 2024, according to the statistics bureau on Thursday. That leaves the total over the first seven months at 613.72 million tons, 2.2% off last year’s pace. The protracted downturn in the real estate market and shrinking factory activity have pushed domestic prices sharply lower, and inflamed trade tensions by unleashing a flood of Chinese metal onto world markets. The nation’s top steelmaker warned on Wednesday that the industry is facing a crisis more severe than the downturns of 2008 and 2015.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
131 days ago
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USA crude production at 13.4MBPD now exceeds Saudi Arabia by 38% & Russia output by 35%.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
133 days ago
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The International Energy Agency predicted that growth in demand for crude would soften as the summer US driving season ended in coming weeks, and be further covered when planned production increases hit the market later this year. The IEA’s monthly report showed that demand in the US helped push consumption growth to 870,000 barrels a day in the second quarter, countering a slowdown in China. The IEA expects growth in demand to be covered by supply increases of about 1.5mn b/d this year and 2025 from countries not in the Opec oil producers’ cartel, such as the US, Guyana, Canada and Brazil.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
138 days ago
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The up & up story of crude production in US
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Admin iconPlatinum User
138 days ago
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Iran likely to increase crude output even as ME tensions grow. Might be the reason why we are not seeing any Iranian efforts to attack Israel.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
139 days ago
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Oil’s recent rally has strong legs to stand on, even if the two biggest economies, the US and China are flashing warning signs. A couple of days ago, the macro market rut pushed oil futures to seven-month lows. For days, the selloff looked overdone, but traders weren’t ready to go against the market. Now, with risk assets calming, the bullish factors can garner more attention. Libya’s biggest oil field just halted production. Traders are awaiting a retaliatory attack by Iran and regional militias on Israel. Additionally, US crude inventories fell for the sixth consecutive week, reaching the lowest since February. It’s the longest run of declines since early 2022. The nationwide decline of 3.73 million barrels takes stocks to around 429 million, which is the lowest level since February.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
139 days ago
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Crude oil inventories fell 3.73MB as per EIA. 6 draws in crude in a row.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
140 days ago
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Global crude consumption will be about 104.5 million barrels a day in 2025, down 200,000 barrels a day from a previous forecast, cutting next year’s projected demand growth rate to 1.6%, according to a monthly Energy Information Administration report Tuesday. The downward revision was driven by concerns that China’s economy has been slowing.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
140 days ago
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Global PMIs are doing ok but other economic data surprise index are increasing on -ve side.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
140 days ago
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Brent bullish bets are gone.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
141 days ago
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Hedge funds have turned predominantly bearish on commodities futures for the first time since 2016. Money managers held a net short position of almost 58,600 contracts for a basket of 20 energy, crop and metals futures in the week ended July 30, according to Friday’s U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. It’s a remarkable reversal from the past few years, when supply disruptions and booming demand prompted investors to hold a net bullish wager on commodities. For more than eight years — including through the peak of the pandemic — hedge funds had held a net bullish bet on raw materials.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
145 days ago
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Gold ETFs are among the beneficiaries of a global pivot towards looser monetary policy, which has restored investors’ appetite for the precious metal and offers another leg up for prices.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
145 days ago
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OPEC+ signaled no changes to oil supplies at a monitoring meeting today, sticking with tentative plans to start reviving halted production next quarter. In June, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed that, starting in October, they would gradually begin restoring output that was halted in late 2022 to shore up prices. About 540,000 barrels a day are due to be added over the course of the fourth quarter.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
145 days ago
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A look at global demand for oil.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
145 days ago
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Gold is this year’s best performing major commodity, setting a series of records as it rallied by a almost a fifth. The surge has been driven by a host of drivers, including consistent central-bank buying and strong demand for physical bars from Asian investors. Further support has come from increasing expectations for lower US rates, as well as spikes in geopolitical tensions.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
145 days ago
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IRAN'S SUPREME LEADER ORDERS RETALIATORY ATTACK ON ISRAEL: NYT. Brent up 3%
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Admin iconPlatinum User
146 days ago
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Broad commodity indicators appear to be at a precarious inflection point, with risks pointing downward and deflation signs mounting.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
146 days ago
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Hamas said Israel killed its political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in an airstrike in Iran. Haniyeh, based in Qatar, was in Tehran for the inauguration of Iran’s new president on Tuesday. He was killed “in a treacherous Zionist airstrike on his residence” in the city, Hamas said in a statement early Wednesday. Brent should some upswing on this.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
146 days ago
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The carry traders unwind globally has knocked the air out of commodities
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Admin iconPlatinum User
152 days ago
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Copper fell below the $9,000-a-ton threshold for the first time since early April and is down by about a fifth since reaching a record in mid-May. With worries on China front, metals are in a tough spot.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
152 days ago
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Copper’s $2,000-plus skid over the past couple of months has helped to drag other commodities lower too.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
155 days ago
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Commodities across the board have been selling off, taking the Bloomberg Commodity Index closer to a key recent low. If it goes through this level it could elicit more selling.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
155 days ago
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Gold continue to see longs built up.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
161 days ago
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Lumber to gold weekly: A sharp dip brings it below January 23 level.This data is only from Dec.21.This is the lowest level.SPX has changed trajectory to reach top in a hurry.Looks like last few days before a major equity sell off begins
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Admin iconPlatinum User
163 days ago
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Gold might see another safe haven bid tomm opening after the failed assassination attempt on US Presidential Candidate Trump
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Admin iconPlatinum User
169 days ago
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US now produces more energy than it consumes.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
175 days ago
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China’s Gold holdings have now reached 5% of their total reserves. This bullish trend highlights the growing demand for gold by the PBOC and signals continued strength in the gold market as its buying persists. We remain bullish on Gold and see a large rally towards 3000 levels by end CY24.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
176 days ago
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Lumber prices not looking good. If lumber not looking good, real estate new supply mostly weak. Then rentals are likely to stay high only.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
180 days ago
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Saudies frankly don't have petro dollars now due to high CADs unlike 1974 when Current account surplus was 50% of gdp
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Admin iconPlatinum User
180 days ago
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Brent looks for a bearish turn beyond the summer. The anticipated pressure on oil due to OPEC+ supply resuming reinforces a leading indicator for the commodity, which is expecting a fall in crude’s price-growth over the next six months. The indicator uses production, US manufacturing data and the futures curve to give about a six-month lead on oil prices. The blue line in the chart below shows the indicator, while the white one is year-on-year oil prices, with the blue line pushed forward by six months. The indicator is designed to anticipate the turns in oil-price growth rather than their magnitudes.
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Admin iconPlatinum User
182 days ago
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Signs of risk off to come!!
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Admin iconPlatinum User
183 days ago
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As the dust settles on last month’s frenzy, the importance of the Chinese market has reasserted itself. Copper prices have dropped about 13% from the peak above $11,100 a ton, as speculators sharply reduced their bullish bets in the wake of the surge — with much of that reduction driven by trend-following funds.
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Admin
232 days ago
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We have written in our opinion piece "The Three Musketeers of Brent" why Hamas will agree for a truce with Israel. Today Hamas said it has agreed to a cease-fire proposal put forward by Qatar and Egypt to halt fighting with Israel in Gaza.
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Admin
236 days ago
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Yest US crude inventory data was a sharp buildup. Normally these data points once they turn remain dat way for some time. Plus geopolitical risk premium is coming down due to likelihood of Israel Hamas truce happening soon under US pressure. So the fear of Brent crossing 90 level on sustained basis should not b there. Now the June OPEC meeting will change future direction. Short term range is now 80-90.
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Admin
237 days ago
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Brent cooling off on higher US inventories. New short term range for Brent is 85-90. In absence of any new geopolitical triggers, June OPEC meeting might now decide a breakout from this range.
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