We stay bearish USD, especially vs EUR & JPY, as the tariff-induced vol shock continues to filter through markets. The 90-day postponement of reciprocal tariffs offers a degree of relief but 10% baseline tariffs and the ratchet on China to 145% mean cyclical and trade drags will linger. These continue to erode US exceptionalism. Our dollar bearish view is based on the assumption that there is no clear and obvious catalyst for a turnaround in this sharp loss of investor confidence in the dollar in short term. We like buying EUR around 1.1210 levels for an eventual test of 1.15 levels. Stop to the view is 1.1055. CMP is 1.1355. In EURAUD there is a SELL opportunity around 1.85 levels & a BUY opportunity around 1.7750 levels. Stop to both views is 100 pips and take profit is 200 pips. CMP is 1.8044. In CNH we have an anti-consensus view than of street. We believe CNH is unlikely to breach 7.40 levels. Hence one can sell calls of 7.60 strike for near time 1–3-month horizon. CAD, we believe can be bought around 1.3750 for a short-term bounce towards 1.3950. Stop being at 1.3605. CMP is 1.3875.
