SpaceX is perhaps the most ambitious IPO ever even by Elon Musk standards. It is attempting to secure a valuation approaching $1.75 trillion despite reporting significant operating losses across major divisions. In it's prospectus filed last week, SpaceX sees a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion and said in its prospectus that identifying and creating trillion-dollar market opportunities is one element of its “repeatable business model.” The vast majority of its addressable market is outside of SpaceX’s existing businesses. There’s an $870 billion market for Starlink’s broadband business, a $740 billion market for Starlink’s mobile unit, a $600 billion digital advertising market for X to pursue and a $2.4 trillion AI infrastructure market. Then there’s enterprise applications, a $22.7 trillion market, based on an estimate from the Digital Cooperation Organization. The issue is not with this forecasts. In fact what SpaceX is doing or attempting to solve is actually unique. It is a leader in launch services market. In fact it's launch revenue understate economics. SpaceX's launch sales were $4.1 billion in 2025, though that understates the segment's full economic power because services for its largest customer, the Connectivity division, aren't included in reported revenue and would likely add another $10-$12 billion. That could make launch a top revenue contributor. SpaceX has no worthy competition except perhaps Blue Origin. In 2025, SpaceX accounted for 81% of large rocket launches vs. 46% in 2019. Measured by kilograms, SpaceX lifted 85%. SpaceX is also well positioned for the Golden dome play via launch, interceptors & satellite communications. It is at the perfect place for defence space inflection point although there is a bit of regulatory risk. Once certified for national-security missions, that payload jump can enable faster missile-warning deployments, rapid satellite replacement and large-scale LEO constellations at a pace no current launcher can match. The near-term ceiling is regulatory restrictions, where the FAA has capped Starbase at 25 Starship launches annually, and SpaceX is pursuing overseas sites to exceed that limit. The problem happens when this vision needs support in public markets. Public investors are being asked to support one of the largest valuations in modern market history while accepting unusually high execution uncertainty. Interestingly Elon Musk controls roughly 85% of SpaceX voting power through special class shares, limiting the influence outside shareholders will have over strategic decisions after the IPO. SpaceX is targeting $75-$90 BN raise at a valuation of $1.75 TN. To put it in context, the entire U.S. IPO market raised roughly $170 billion in 2025, across more than 1,300 deals. If one uses SOTP model, Starlink’s consumer business might be valued at 30 times revenue, launch services at perhaps 5 times & the direct-to-cell segment at around 35 times. Those are very aggressive numbers. But the xAI business had revenues of roughly $500 million in 2025 — and at a $250 billion valuation, it’s being priced at 500 times trailing revenue. At the full $1.75 trillion IPO target and SpaceX’s projected 2026 revenue of around $28.5 billion for the combined entity, we arrvie at forward revenue multiple of roughly 61 times. On a trailing basis, the multiple is closer to 100 times. To justify a valuation at that level, SpaceX needs to sustain roughly 40% annualized revenue growth for a decade. Moonshot organisations such as SpaceX are best funded by private credit which has the comfort of long gestation capital with them. Using public markets to raise funds does not serve the purpose of SpaceX or the public investor. In the end the only winner in this IPO is Elon Musk himself. He’s the largest single shareholder, and a $1.5 to $1.75 trillion valuation would make him, by most estimates, the world’s first trillionaire. And that is where we believe the objective of this IPO lies. Also SpaceX is targeting a listing on the Nasdaq and has reportedly been pushing for fast-track inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 — within just 15 days of listing, compared to the standard waiting period of up to a year. The logic is straightforward: Nasdaq 100 inclusion forces passive index funds to hold the stock, providing an automatic boost to demand post-IPO. The Nasdaq is apparently open to adjusting its rules. Welcome to the new world of Elon Musk where public funds will crown him the world's 1st trillionaire.
