In US economic data, we have Dec'24 CPI & Dec'24 retail sales. Both data we expect to be stronger than market estimates. US headline CPI for Dec'24 we expect at 0.4% MoM & for core CPI we expect .27% MoM. For headline US retail sales we expect 1% MoM & for control we expect 0.6% MoM. Other US economic indicators data due this week such as industrial production & initial jobless claims might come strong than current market estimates. There are several Fed speakers due this week which should give hawkish guidance as per our understanding of current US macros. In global data, UK CPI on 15th Jan is crucial for UK gilts to find some stability. We expect the data to come at 2.7% while service CPI to come at 4.8%. UK GDP data too might show some uptick for Nov at 0.2%. We also have ECB minutes of 12th Dec dovish meeting which should put some light on where the neutral is as per ECB members. We continue to expect 125 bps of further cut in Eurozone in CY25 from current 3% to neutral level of 1.75%.
