We have the crucial Fed meeting starting 17th Sep-18th Sep where rates market is pricing in a 50% chance of a 50-bps cut. We believe it might be a steady 25 bps * 3 meetings cut in REMCY24 & total 125 bps cut by Mar’24. There might be a neutral press conference by Fed Chair Powell if it is a 50 bps cut & a dovish press conference if it is a 25 bps cut. US headline retail sales might come weak but control group retail sales might remain strong. UK's BOE might maintain status quo in it's 19th Sep meeting. The UK CPI might firm up in Aug. BOJ is likely to stay unchanged in it's 19th Sep meet as domestic LDP elections are under way. We do not expect a rate hike before Dec'24. Japan CPI likely firmed up higher in Aug in data due on 20th Sep.
