With most of January’s data now in, it’s clear from the weak nonfarm payrolls and retail sales that the unusually cold winter has dampened economic activity. We expect indicators in the coming week to tell a similar story, with housing starts (Wed.) and existing home sales (Fri.) likely to have decelerated in January. This week’s Fedspeak docket kicks off with outlook speeches from Philadelphia’s Harker (non-voter) and Governor Waller, as well as a speech on the economy and regulatory outlook by Governor Bowman. In tariff news, we dont have any deadlines for tariff's implementation this week. In UST auction supply, we have 16 BN USD of 20year supply & 9 BN USD of 30 year TIPS. In rest of the world events, RBA is expected to commence it's rate cut cycle by 25 bps in the 18th Feb meeting. We expect the guidance to be neutral. In inflation data, Canadian CPI data on 18th Feb is likely to come lower than market estimates. Our own estimate is at -.1% with downside risks. UK CPI data for Jan'25 due on 19th Feb is likely to come higher at 2.9% In Japanese data, both GDP data & CPI data is expected to surprise on the upside. We continue to expect 3 more hikes of 25 bps each by BOJ by Mar'26.
