This week’s economic calendar features a light calendar of US macro data. Though Chair Powell will be giving welcoming remarks at a Fed regulatory conference, Fed officials will otherwise be in their communications blackout with respect to any commentary on monetary policy ahead of next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. We believe in current scenario it is a low probability event. Firing Powell is a loose-loose scenario for Trump. Not only will US equities market golden run might stop but long end UST yields should sharply move higher. And the reward is a long-drawn court affair. The next in line to chair Fed is Vice Chair Jefferson who is a Biden appointee & a Powell ally. So, Trump does not gain the Fed command instead looses the equity market rally & bond market calm. In tariff news, we might finally get to hear final outcomes on EU-US & US-India tariff levels. Barring any major upside surprise in Thursday’s jobless claims (237k our estimate vs. 221k previous week) or downside surprises to next week’s labor data released ahead of the conclusion of the July 30 FOMC meeting, we expect most Fed officials to remain supportive of holding rates. Our own view is that full pass through of tariffs is unlikely considering the weak state of US consumer. Hence, we continue to believe in 50 bps cut by Fed in RMCY25, 25 bps each in Sep & Dec’25. In UST auction supply, there is 13 BN USD of 20 Yr UST supply on Wednesday & 21 BN USD supply of 10yr TIPS on Thursday. In ECB meeting on 24th July we expect status quo. We maintain that ECB is likely to cut rates by 25 bps each in Sep and Dec meeting. Japan Upper house election results are along expected lines. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has said today he intended to stay on even as his ruling coalition headed for a historic setback in an upper house election. The above results are as per our expectations and we expect JGB long end yields to cool down as political stability returns with Ishiba continues. More importantly, Japan US tariff negotiations will gather speed now.
