Our parting thought for CY24 is we saw 100 bps cut by Fed in CY24 accompanied by 100 bps rise in 10yr UST yields. Most didn’t expect this & we certainly didn’t expect this to the extent it happened. We now expect CY25 to be the year of FX wars motivated by tariffs & protectionist economic agendas. Monetary policy of US will be most hawkish followed by UK followed by Eurozone. And the Ace of Spades in CY25 might be BOJ. We might 1st see 165 in USDJPY in H1CY25 and then a steep fall to 135 by end CY25. Similarly, we might 1st see 5% in 10yr UST in H1CY25 & then a steep fall to 4% by end CY25. Our team would like to wish all of our clients and colleagues Safe and Happy Holidays. Merry Christmas & Happy New Year. We will be now going on our annual break and come back with more reports & analysis only on 5th Jan’25.
