The week ahead has US core PCE data along with US consumer confidence, durable goods orders as well as Q4 GDP 3rd estimate. We expect core PCE to come at .33%. Price increases across goods, health care, and financial services more than offset declines in other sectors. We estimate headline PCE inflation remained at 0.3%. We also have 183 BN USD auction supply of 2/5/7 USTs. The week ahead might also significant amount of chatter on reciprocal tariffs likely to be announced on 2nd April. We believe markets are in tariff fatigue stage & hence discounting the risk too easily of Trump adding VATs, NTBs to tariffs too. In RoW UK has CPI data due on Wednesday which we expect to come flat. The Spring statement from UK Chancellor takes center stage on Wednesday. Tokyo CPI likely remain elevated giving enough cause for BOJ to hike twice by 25 bps each in REMCY25 provided the political situation does not deteriorate further locally. Australian Feb CPI might come slightly lower than Jan reading but that might not be enough to force RBA to cut rates in it's April rate meeting. Europe continues to be in news due to recent German fiscal package and is likely to see stronger flash PMIs this week. Month end/quarter end rebalancing flows and index extension might impact bond yields & fx levels near March end.
