This week's Thanksgiving holiday-shortened economic calendar will provide the latest reading on the Fed's preferred inflation metric, estimates for current-quarter growth and provide more info on the Fed's deliberations at the November 7 FOMC meeting. We expect the core PCE to come at .28% MoM for Oct implying 2.8% YoY. We do not expect core PCE to dip below 2.5% any time before end CY25. This implies a higher neutral rate for Fed. We expect a HOLD in Fed's 18th Dec meet based upon strong economic data, stalled disinflation for last 3 months & employment looking stable. We also have 2,5,7 UST auction supply this week totaling 183 BN USD. 2nd estimate of Q3 US GDP data is also likely to be revised upwards to 3.3% from 1st estimate's 2.8%. In RoW data, Eurozone headline CPI is likely to come at 2.3% & core at 2.8-2.9% but is mostly due to last year base effects. German IFO survey due Monday is likely to print a low reading at 83. RBNZ might cut by 50 bps in it's 27th Nov meeting. In Japan, Tokyo core inflation (excluding fresh food) is expected to come higher at 2.2% driven by higher service inflation & removal of subsidies. We expect BoJ to hike by 25 bps in it's Jan'25 meeting as it gets more clarity on the Shunto negotiations for CY25. Austalian CPI due 27th Nov is likely to rise to 2.3% but is more due to base effects. Underneath the headline, trimmed mean measure potentially looks slipping back inside the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2%-3% target band for the first time since December 2021. This implies a 25 bps rate cut possibility from RBA in Feb'25.
