This week's highlight is US Nonfarm Payroll data for Nov. We expect the data to come strong at 275k against current market estimates of 200k. We also expect significant upward revisions to 1st estimate of Oct's no of 12k to 75k. Unemployment rate is likely to round off to 4.1%, far below the CY24 end SEP projection of 4.5% in the Fed's Sep meeting. Wage growth likely to come at 0.3% MoM. So wage growth is moderating, but the pace remains elevated, which should lead to lingering inflation pressures within super core services. Core PCE inflation remained elevated in October, suggesting disinflation progress has stalled. This supports our Fed call of a December skip on rate cuts & only 50 bps cut in CY25. Last week's Trump's policy choices make it clear that tariffs are coming in H1CY25 on a large scale. This also supports our call for a hold in Fed's Dec meeting. In other US economic data, we expect strong manufacturing ISM & service ISM. Fed speak is heavy this week with Fed Chair Powell speaking on Wednesday. Then post NFP data on Friday, many Fed speakers are lined up which should give us clues on their Dec decision making. Market reaction could be northward move of yields again as well as renewed strength in DXY.
