Last week we see a series of weak US economic data such as falling consumer confidence, pending home sales, durable good orders ex transport & Atlanata's Fed reading of -1.8% GDP forecast for Q1CY25. This week's economic data is likely to show the same trend. We expect the ISM services to come lower than consensus, Feb NFP at 130k against consensus of 160k as well as an elevated IJC. We expect Mexico & Canada to escape Trump tariffs again as they have been showing their actions on drug cartel control as well as immigration control but China might continue to face the music. Fed speak is likely to remain patient but we believe that QT taper is on it's way though Logan downplayed in her last week comments. We also see a 25 bps cut in the 6th March ECB meeting with neutral commentary. In summary, the test of US exceptionalism shall continue and it is a matter of if and not when it crumbles down. We will be soon releasing a detailed note on the expected demise of US exceptionalism as well as the Feb NFP preview by Wednesday.
