Though we have a few private sector data points this week, focus is likely to remain on Fed speak in the wake of Chair Powell’s messaging following last Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. We have a heavy Fed speaker calendar this week which will matter more than any macro data. Since the US government shutdown continues, we have only ISM manufacturing & ISM services data in this week. JOLTS is unlikely to come out due to shutdown. There is no auction supply of dated treasuries this week. On tariff front, we have the important hearing in US Supreme Court on 5th Nov on the legal validity of IEEPA. We believe there is a high probability of it being termed as illegal by the Supreme Court which will pull long end UST yields higher and DXY lower. In RoW events, we have the crucial BOE meet on 7th Nov where we see a 25 bps cut by 5-4 margin (against consensus & current market pricing of only 7 bps). The RBA meet on 4th Nov might see a status quo due to recent hot CPI nos. Canadian employment data is likely to be weaker on 7th Nov. In Eurozone, we now don't see ECB cutting by 25bps after going through last week's ECB meeting discussions. In Eurozone macro data, we have German industrial production & German factory orders this week.
