The week ahead is macro data heavy for US with ISM services, ISM manufacturing, JOLTS and finally NFP on Friday. But Trump's reciprocal tariff announcements on 2nd April takes center stage this week. We estimate that the trade actions taken to date (if they remain in place through year end) imply an overall US tariff rate of roughly 10.5%. Adding the recent auto tariffs, the current US tariffs are the highest since WWII. We believe that markets are not pricing in another large bump in tariffs due to 2nd April announcements. For us, the final tariff levels could be 14-15% after 2nd April events. In Fed speak Fed Chair Powell speaks just after NFP on Friday. In Eurozone though the CPI readings might come lower than expected, we still believe ECB's terminal rate is at 2.25% and only one more rate cut of 25 bps is left in it's June meeting. RBA is expected to remain on status quo in it's Tuesday meeting and May is where it might cut by 25 bps. Chinese official PMIs might come a tad better than estimates on Monday.
