This week's data docket is relatively light and will undoubtedly take a back seat to the US election on Tuesday and the FOMC meeting on Thursday. The race between Vice President Harris (Democrat) and former President Trump (Republican) is a near dead heat – both at the national level and within the seven swing states that will decide the outcome of the electoral college. The Congressional election outcome will be critical for the policy outlook as well. While Republicans appear poised to gain the majority in the Senate, the House of Representatives could go either way. At the 7th Nov FOMC meet, we expect a dovish 25 bps cut by Fed. This action would mark a continuation of "recalibrating" the monetary policy stance to an environment with lower inflation and more balanced risks to the Fed's dual mandate. A 25bp reduction is likely to be broadly supported by the Committee, in our view, though future decisions could be more contentious. In US economic data, we expect a soft ISM services. In UST supply, we have 3yr, 10yr & 30 yr UST auctions this week. In BOE meet on 7th Nov, we expect a neutral 25 bps cut with increase in projections for growth as well as inflation. RBA is likely to keep on hold in it's 5th Nov meet. The Chinese NPC meet from 4-8th Nov is crucial for gauging actual fiscal stimulus towards consumption if any. Most likely this decision from China might come only after US election results.
