This week we have crucial US Sep CPI reading on 10th Oct. We are expecting headline CPI (+0.06% forecast vs. +0.19% previously) to remain roughly unchanged while core (+0.27% vs. +0.28%) should come in slightly cooler than last month’s data. If our expectations are correct, the year-over-year growth rate of headline CPI would drop 30bps to 2.3%, while that for core tick down a tenth to 3.2%. We expect a higher initial jobless claims at 235k due to Hurricane Helene. We expect a strong Univ of Michigan prelim reading for Oct at 72. In Sep PPI, we expect headline (+0.1% vs. +0.2% prior) and core (+0.2% vs. 0.3% prior). US economy continues to remain strong & we expect 25 bps cut in each of the 4 meetings till end FY25 and then a long status quo. In rest of the world data, we expect RBNZ to cut by 50 bps on 9th Oct considering falling inflation & weaker growth readings. In Japan we expect labor cash earnings for Aug to come at 3.1% YoY compared to market estimates of 3.4%.
