Though this week’s economic calendar is relatively light, Wednesday's CPI and Thursday's PPI releases will be the major focus for market participants ahead of the March 19th FOMC meeting. We expect more moderate gains than last month for both headline CPI (+0.27% forecast vs. +0.47% previously), as well as core (+0.24% vs. +0.45%). While the Fed is widely expected to remain on hold at the March meeting, the inflation data will be an important input for official’s updated economic projections, and in turn, their expectations for monetary policy in the second half of the year. On other US data front, we expect job openings increased to 7900k in January from 7600k in December. We also expect the Dec JOLT nos to be revised upwards. In prelim survey of Univ of Michigan for Mar'25, we expect the consumer sentiment likedy ticked down to 63, lowest since Nov'23. In US budget negotiations, House Speaker Mike Johnson on Saturday released a proposal endorsed by President Trump that would keep the federal government funded through September. But in current form it looks unlikely to be passed in Senate. Hence we expect funding for federal agencies runs out by 14th March. With no new legislation, many federal employees would be furloughed, while others would continue to report to work with no pay. In ROW events, we expect BOC to cut by 25bps in it's Wednesday meeting to safeguard domestic economy from US tariffs. In Germany, after last week's ground breaking events, we expect the current defense spending & infra spending plans to be approved on Tuesday 18 March by the lower house (Bundestag), and on Friday 21 March by the upper house (Bundestag). In UK we expect lower output in January at -.2% for both total economy & service sector.
