We expect a reading of .17% MoM increase in headline CPI & .13% MoM increase in core CPI. This translates to a 3% YoY growth in headline CPI & 3.2% YoY growth in core CPI. Our expectations MoM are as follows: used car prices (-1.8%), new car prices (-.3%), car insurance (+.7%), food (+.15%), energy (+.2%), OER (+.29%) & primary rent (+.27%). If above assumptions are correct, the 3m annualised core CPI rate might fall to 1.7% from 2.1% in June & the 6m annualised core CPI rate might fall to 2.9% from 3.3% in June. This will be the lowest since 2021. Based upon yesterday’s soft PPI & our current CPI estimates, we expect the core PCE due 30th Aug to rise 0.22% MoM & 2.7% YoY.
