We expect headline job gains cooled to 120k in April. Lead indicators have been mostly positive, but the underlying trend for employment growth is likely slowing and trade uncertainty adds near-term downside risk. We expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.2% after having risen 0.1pp in the prior month, with the participation rate holding steady at 62.5%. Average hourly earnings (AHE) growth likely remained same at 0.3% m-o-m, with a small risk of a negative calendar effect weighing on the monthly print. April nonfarm payrolls report is likely to point to labor market resilience at least for now. Employment data is not yet falling off a cliff as uncertainty and slower expected growth make businesses more cautious. We expect monthly NFP readings of less than 75k from June onwards possibly which should bring the employment mandate of Fed in focus. We continue to expect 3 rate cuts of 25 bps each in REMCY25. We remain more bullish on long end 10yr UST than the short end 2yr UST. We expect 10yr UST to test 4% levels by end June. CMP is 4.23. Stop to the view is a weekly close above 4.45.
