THE WEEK AHEAD ECONOMIC DATA RELEASE 7TH DEC 2025 NO FALL IN RUSSIAN CRUDE EXPORTS POST NOV SANCTIONS DEC FOMC PREVIEW: A HAWKISH CUT CAN 10YR USTs MAKE A DASH TO 4.5% THE WEEK AHEAD ECONOMIC DATA RELEASE 30TH NOV 2025 EX OIL COMMODITIES ARE SET FOR MORE UPSIDE IN CY26 CHINA IS IRREVERSABLY DECOUPLING FROM US: THINK 2027, THINK TAIWAN IS THIS DECEMBER DIFFERENT FOR DOLLAR BUY 10YR UK GILTS AGAINST SELL 10YR GERMAN BUNDS BUY 10YR UK GILTS SELL 10YR UST BUY S&P 500

VIX TRIGGER IS CARRY TRADE UNWINDING & NOT US HARD LANDING

ADMIN || 6th August 2024

There has been massive unwinding of risk assets in the past 4 days since BOJ hiked interest rates by 15 bps and announced a phased reduction in QE. In the same period, NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) July data for US got released which was remarkably weak in UR (Unemployment Rate) and headline NFP too. But the cause of the current rise in IVs is the unwinding of carry trades and not a hard landing of US economy which US rates markets seem to be building the case for.

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