US Job gains slowed to 57k in June (Our estimate: 75k, Consensus: 113k), along with 74k of negative revisions to the prior two months. The deceleration was largely driven by negative payback after unsustainable strength in past months. Beyond the monthly noise, underlying employment growth remains solid. While the weaker US June NFP report (+57K vs. consensus +113K) led USD lower (at least initially), we believe it may still be a little early to call this the start of a USD downtrend. The forces that have combined to strengthen the Dollar over the last few months look increasingly likely to endure. We remain most bearish on JPY and then GBP. We remain neutral on EUR and bullish on CNH.
