In this 6 page report, we examine how commodity markets have historically responded to El Niño events, ahead of what climate forecasters expect could be one of the strongest ('Super') El Niño events on record developing over the second half of 2026. We looked at prices of grains, softs, metals & energy across the globe via last 25 year's data and concluded that our strongest conviction bets are on palm oil, coconut oil, rubber, coal, copper, aluminium, coffee & rice due to the onset of El Nino this summer. These conviction bets might pay off in the medium term i.e. 12 months on an average so that trade/investment horizon should be planned accordingly.
