Ishiba pulled off a dramatic comeback in the LDP PM election runoff, overcoming a 26-vote deficit against Takaichi in terms of MP votes in the initial round. Hence, Ishiba’s victory in the runoff was razor thin. Ishiba does not have a stable power base inside the party. He needs to call snap LH elections to unify the fractured party in order to solidify his leadership. This pressures Ishiba to call snap LH elections this fall when his approval ratings will be the highest. This implies BOJ Oct meeting is a non event. Then the budget presentation will happen which again makes BOJ's Dec meeting a non event. So the earliest BOJ can move is it's Jan'25 meeting. If the BoJ does not hike in January, it has two more chances: March and April. But its June'25 meeting is a no-go because it is too close to the UH elections.
