This week’s economic calendar features a heavy dose of Fed speak with a sprinkling of data releases that should provide a timely update on the outlook for capex and the overall business sector. In addition, the Treasury will conduct its second long-end buyback in the 20-30y sector since expanding the size. Investors will likely focus on the purchase amount, which Treasury has indicated would be at least $4bn but could be higher, as well as the breadth of offers accepted. In the FOMC meeting last week, FOMC delivered a unanimous hike, in line with our expectations. The 2026 dot moved up to signal another hike and the distribution pointed to broad support for further tightening. We expect another 25bp hike in October policy. In US macro data this week we have S&P PMIs, initial jobless claims & new home sales. In UST dated supply, we have 2yr FRN auction of $28 BN on Tuesday, 2yr UST auction of $69 BN on Tuesday again, $70 BN of 5 yr UST on Wednesday & $44 BN of 7 yr UST on Thursday. In RoW events, we have SNB meeting & the Norges bank meeting, We expect the SNB to leave its policy rate unchanged at 0.00% at its 24 September meeting. We expect Norges Bank to leave its policy rate unchanged at 4.25%, but signal that another rate rise is likely this year.
