Japan’s policy framework is coming under renewed strain, with rising JGB volatility and a weak yen sharpening a trade-off that markets believe authorities can no longer avoid.
Risk off globally happening today opening across asset classes post the US tariffs announcement on EU wrt Greenland issue.. Equities are down, Gold & Silver are up, Crypto is down, DXY is lower & EUR & JPY are acting as safe haven fx for the time being.
Bitcoin has broken through $97,000 and hit a two-month high, as flows for the largest exchange-traded fund for the cryptocurrency turned positive.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell today said the US central bank had been served grand jury subpoenas from the Justice Department threatening a criminal indictment related to his June congressional testimony on ongoing renovations of the Fed’s headquarters. This implies a long duel between Powell & Trump now and puts -ve light on institutional credibility of US policy making. This implies -ve dollar, higher safe havens such as Gold, swissie, Yuan & Silver & more curve steepening in US. On equities in medium term it might be positive as rate cuts chatter picks up.
If the US supreme court decides tomorrow to ask US administration to refund the tariffs collected till now, it might significantly pressurefunding spreads.
Trump's new world order implies low spot vols but fatter tail risks.