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Risk Off Globally Over Greenland Tariffs

ADMIN || 19th January 2026

European equity futures opened more than 1% lower for both Germany’s DAX and the Euro Stoxx 50 as investors price for that region’s stocks to take the biggest initial hit from escalating tensions between Trump and Europe over Greenland.

S&P 500 E-Minis are down ~0.8%, while Nasdaq-100 contracts slide 1.1%. German bund futures are 14 pips higher, and OAT contracts are rising more than 20 pips, as traders anticipate a hit to European growth from all this uncertainty. 10yr US futures are almost trading flat at 4.22% yield.

If EU’s leaders end up making concessions to the US in order to resolve this, that hands further power to Trump and means investors need to price in the risk he will again threaten Europe with punitive measures in the future. If they push back hard enough for Trump to step back on the issue, that may call into doubt the US’s willingness to aid Europe in helping Ukraine.

Bitcoin is flipping around in the sub-$93,000 area, with its recent bounce offering some insulation against a major meltdown. If it can maintain distance from $90,000, Bitcoin has potential to hold in its recent mild uptrend. A break below there would likely need fresh equities declines as a driver and it might also set off enough pain to threaten contagion to other assets.

Gold & Silver have further rallied to new highs due to the breakdown in risk sentiment. Crude almost flat due to Iranian events counterbalancing geopolitical risk off effect. DXY today is marginally lower led by EUR & JPY but it remains to be seen if EUR can maintain it’s safe haven status if the additional US tariffs on EU continue from 1st Feb.

Since US markets are closed today due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day, the full extent of damage to risk assets might be known tomorrow only. And another chapter to this saga might begin when Trump speaks in Davos on Wednesday.

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