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RBA’s penchant for surprise means AUDUSD facing volatile day

ADMIN || 3rd February 2026

A lot of the commentary heading into Tuesday’s RBA meeting has framed a rate hike as essentially a done deal, despite the way such a move would mark the shallowest easing cycle since at least the early 1990s. However, the risks of a surprise shouldn’t be overlooked, given the central bank’s recent track record, meaning AUD/USD is facing a very volatile day of its own.

The RBA’s decisions were noticeably at odds with trader positioning at three meetings in recent years, based on comparing the front meeting-dated OIS with the actual cash-rate target set. That shows the central bank surprised in July 2025 with a decision to hold the benchmark at 3.85%, instead of lowering it to 3.6% -- a step it then took at the August gathering when markets had fully priced it in.

Back in 2023 the RBA hit markets with a double shock with back-to-back hikes. The 25-bp increase at the May meeting of that year came with OIS traders fully pricing a hold, and then the June tightening had been priced as only a one-in-three chance. Those moves came before current RBA Governor Bullock took the reins, though she was the Deputy Governor at that time.

That offers a double warning for FX traders heading into toay’s meeting. The central bank could indeed decide to hold, which would further unwind AUD/USD’s recent surge. But it could also deliver a hike in a way that leaves the door wide open to a follow-up move at the next meeting and that would send the currency up at a rapid pace.

 

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