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Trump to announce next Fed Chair on Friday morning

ADMIN || 30th January 2026

President Trump’s comments that he plans to announce his nomination for the next Fed chair have helped to support the US dollar as it climbs ~0.4% against the yen, euro and other major peers. That may partly just be the potential for an end to uncertainty, but it’s also come as prediction markets show a surge in bets that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh will be chosen.

Polymarket contracts show the odds for Warsh jumped to above 75%, from less than 50% a day earlier. The chances for BlackRock’s Rick Rieder faded to just 13% he was recently seen as the most likely option by most of the markets (including us).

Should Trump indeed land on Warsh that may bolster the dollar and Treasuries thanks to his pedigree -- and it also might boost the likelihood of an easy path to Congressional approval. As things now stand there’s the possibility that the Senate would block any candidate as long as current Chair Powell is under investigation.

Part of the strong declines that hit the dollar over the past week were driven by concerns that Trump would tap a chair who would move rapidly to lower interest rates and show little willingness to consider any potential fallout from such a move. While the president has said he wants a new Fed leader who would deliver lower borrowing costs than Jerome Powell has, Warsh may be welcomed as being capable of doing so without fully sacrificing Fed independence.

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