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THE CURIOUS POST EARNING’S SELL OFF TREND IN NVIDIA

ADMIN || 17th November 2025

This week might be another great Nvidia earnings report that will then most likely see the stock price tumble, dragging the broader market with it.

A curious anomaly has grown out of Nvidia’s fantastic surge to become the world’s largest company (by far): every time it confirms that it’s making more money at an even faster pace, that tends to mark a bearish turning point for the stock.

Since it’s 2Q 2024 earnings report, released on Aug. 28 last year, the stock has climbed ~50%, adding a phenomenal ~$1.5 trillion in market cap. And yet it has almost always sold off in the wake of its earnings reports in that period.

The S&P 500’s recovery on Friday seems to be one stemming from relief, rather than an all-clear signal. Whether it can resume the rally into year-end increasingly depends on this week’s Nvidia’s earnings, where investors will seek to confirm that the secular AI trade has legs.

Levels matter now. The S&P 500 has reclaimed the 50-day moving average but the 6,775–6,800 zone will be the next area to watch. If the gauge moves above it, lighter positioning leaves an easier channel toward 6,900. A breach below it as seen on Thursday risks paving the way for a faster slide given a negative gamma backdrop.

On Nvidia results itself, we expect a typical ~$2b beat, with ~$56b in revenues above the midpoint of guidance at $54b (and slightly above consensus of ~$55b). The beat should be driven by broad-based strength across the co's segments, but understandably focus will be concentrated on the co's Data Center business, which we see growing ~22% q/q to ~$50b.

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