BRENT MIGHT CROSS 100 NEXT WEEK HOW FED MIGHT REACT TO OIL PRICE SHOCK THE WEEK AHEAD ECONOMIC DATA RELEASE 1ST MAR 2026 IGNORE DATA FOR TIME BEING, LOOK AT NEWS FLOW IRAN WAR MIGHT GET A LOT WORSE BEFORE IT GETS BETTER US NFP FEB’26 PREVIEW THE WEEK AHEAD ECONOMIC DATA RELEASE 22ND FEB 2026 RISK ASSETS MIGHT BE WRONG ABOUT IRAN

10yr JGB Yields set to top 2% soon

ADMIN || 3rd December 2025

JGB traders are showing no sign of giving up on the path toward 2% yields for 10-year bonds, despite a solid auction this week. Currently its trading at 1.87%.

The rollover into the March futures contract is beginning with shifts in open interest, suggesting that investors are rolling short positions into next year. There’s also a natural instinct to stay defensive ahead of Thursday’s 30-year sale, with yields hovering near the highest level since that tenor debuted more than 20 years ago.

However, since Kazuo Ueda became BOJ Governor the time lapses between interest rate hikes has been several months. That suggests if an increase is confirmed this month, it is very unlikely to be followed by another in January, which will invite investors to snap up long-dated debt for the roll down the yield curve. That’s already starting to play out in the 40-year sector which is outperforming shorter tenors.

For now, everything circles back to the Dec. 19 BOJ meeting where a 25-bp move still isn’t fully priced. That will keepdownward pressure on JGB futures in the near term.

Legal Disclaimer:

Trading foreign exchange/commodities/equities/bonds on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange/commodities/equities you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange/commodities/equities trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Read More