THE WEEK AHEAD ECONOMIC DATA RELEASE 30TH NOV 2025 EX OIL COMMODITIES ARE SET FOR MORE UPSIDE IN CY26 CHINA IS IRREVERSABLY DECOUPLING FROM US: THINK 2027, THINK TAIWAN IS THIS DECEMBER DIFFERENT FOR DOLLAR THE WEEK AHEAD ECONOMIC DATA RELEASE 23RD NOV 2025 DUTCH PENSION REFORMS: THE NEXT LONG END WORRY NVIDIA: WINNER TAKES IT ALL UK AUTMN BUDGET: PREVIEW BUY 10YR UK GILTS AGAINST SELL 10YR GERMAN BUNDS BUY 10YR UK GILTS SELL 10YR UST BUY S&P 500
Macrospectrum
Subscribe icon
Rates

UST YIELDS IVs LOOKING TO RISE

ADMIN || 6th November 2025

Today 10yr UST yields have moved to 4.15 levels from 4.05 levels, a 10bps rise aided by multiple factors:

1.    Yields eked higher after the ADP employment data showed a bigger-than-expected increase (+42k against consensus of +30k) in private payrolls in October.

2.    Oral arguments at the US Supreme Court today looked to indicate that most of the judges find IEEPA unfit as a tool for tariffs. This implies IEEPA likely to be declared void, leading to refunds of 150 BN USD and adding to fiscal worries.

3.    The Quarterly Refunding Announcement included new language that suggested the Treasury is actually considering increasing nominal and FRN issuance size. The department also made no changes to its liquidity support or buyback schedule leaving it at $38 billion, disappointing some who had expected an increase.

4.    A strong ISM services reading at 52.4 much higher than market estimates of 50.8. US services activity expanded in October at the fastest pace in eight months on a swift upturn in the growth of new orders. The rebound in demand was accompanied by more pronounced inflationary pressures, with the prices-paid index rising to a three-year high of 70. The services report showed employment is starting to stabilize, with the employment index climbing to a five-month high of 48.2, indicating employment shrank but at a slower pace.

5.    Yields on 10yr USTs touched the highest in nearly a month, sparking concerns that mortgage-bond hedging would kick in and accelerating the selloff.

6.    Investment-grade corporate bond issuance ramped up again with several benchmark and multi-tranche deals after Tuesday’s lull. Official coupon auctions next week include back-end supply via 10s and 30s. This lends to corporate treasurer rate-locking and buyers maneuvering to make room to buy the deals or trying to muster a concession.

Summary: We are headed towards 4.20-4.25 level on 10yr UST and IVs are likely to rise after a long period of lull.

Legal Disclaimer:

Trading foreign exchange/commodities/equities/bonds on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange/commodities/equities you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange/commodities/equities trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Read More