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BRENT SLIDING DOWN ON RUSSIA UKRAINE PEACE DEAL TALKS

ADMIN || 24th November 2025

Crude oil is sliding today as the relatively optimistic tone coming out of the US-Ukraine talks signals there’s little threat to Russian oil supplies. That allows the overall outlook for ample supplies and softening demand to drive futures back toward the lows in mid-October.

President Donald Trump helped put a charge into crude prices on several occasions in recent months via threats of sanctions aimed at curbing Russian shipments, and separately through talk of potential strikes against major oil producer Venezuela. The potency of US-centered geopolitical risks as a prop for crude prices seems likely to weaken further as the White House concentrates on pushing for lower consumer prices stateside.

After this month’s US elections handed a series of defeats to the Republican party, Trump is emphasizing a need to improve affordability, so all things being equal his government may be keen to avoid spikes in crude prices.

China oil demand is also likely to be sluggish for some time, given falling oil imports, less traffic congestion and ongoing deflation spiral. It can halt OPEC+'s plan to extend a supply boost, unless the US's tougher sanctions on Russia or Ukraine's attacks on oil production facilities acutely disrupt Moscow's energy exports. China's Nov. 1-18 oil imports are down 14.5% vs. a month Ago. (see chart below)

Brent is currently trading around $62 levels but is prone to a large downslide below $60 levels. Crude traders are closely monitoring whether a deal will materialize, and if sanctions on Russia will be gradually lifted, developments that could inject additional supply into a market already anticipating a major surplus next year. OPEC+ and other producers, particularly in the Americas, have ramped up output, and the outlook has put prices on course for an annual decline.

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