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Crude risks falling to multi year lows as supply glut persists

ADMIN || 16th December 2025

The global oil market may seize the spotlight in Tuesday’s session as Brent is at risk of closing below $60 a barrel for the first time since the pandemic.

The proximate drivers of the latest bout of weakness rest in sustained concerns about a surplus, coupled with a fresh push by Washington to try to bring an end to the war in Ukraine.

Expectations for a glut are the norm following a campaign by OPEC+ to reclaim market share by loosening supply curbs. Despite that push, rival drillers especially in the Americas keep on adding barrels, too.

Note that a slew of product markets look especially weak at the moment, so there’s no support to be had from that quarter. Among them, US gasoline futures are already at the lowest since 2021.

The global crude benchmark ended at $60.56 on Monday. If it does close below $60 today, the step down would be a fitting final act to a year in which oil has come out on the losing side.

We have been bearish on Crude since early 2025 and continue to believe that Brent is eventually headed towards $50 levels by mid CY26. Some of our opinion pieces with the same view are as follows:

7th Dec

https://macro-spectrum.com/opinion/no-fall-in-russian-crude-exports-post-nov-sanctions

26th Oct

https://macro-spectrum.com/opinion/brent-might-soon-see-taco

5th Oct

https://macro-spectrum.com/opinion/to-russia-with-love

6th July

https://macro-spectrum.com/opinion/the-return-of-saudi-barrels

3rd May

https://macro-spectrum.com/opinion/crude-might-fall-some-more

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