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US Natural Gas Prices Have Room to Fall Further

ADMIN || 9th January 2026

April US natural gas is set to roll into the front month in February and has already slipped below $3 per million British thermal units, tracking a drop in the national average gasoline price to about $2.82 a gallon. History suggests a deeper slide a move toward $2 is often the market’s way of restoring balance, a dynamic that would align with the Trump administration’s preference for lower energy prices and Treasury yields.

Both the April gas contract and average US pump prices fell through the $3 mark on Jan. 7, reviving a familiar pattern in natural gas: Rallies struggle to hold above $4, while prices repeatedly gravitate back toward $2, as seen in the graphic below. Over roughly 12 years of trading, the April contract’s most common price is near $2.90, close to current levels and an initial support zone.

The clock is ticking. Winter heating demand is fading and the April contract expires March 27. What arrests the downside from here remains unclear.

The clearest potential tailwind would be colder-than-normal weather. Winter in the US arrived with a burst of chill, but forecasts suggest it may end more gently, consistent with longer-term warming trends. For now, the front-month gas contract is around $3.50.

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