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Trump wants Crude Lower for Longer

ADMIN || 7th January 2026

WTI crude futures are sliding after President Trump announced that Venezuela will be sending oil to the US. That’s driving the contract toward the $55 line which has been a make-or-break zone in the past year.

Going into this week, hedge funds were the most bullish on oil since November, and some of that positioning may still need to be unwound. Moreover, there will be a clear momentum signal for oil bears should futures print below $55 in the near term.

Whether oil rebounds on relative value buying or sinks into a lower trading range, crude is back at the top of risk chartsfor macro players.

Trump said Venezuela is going to hand over 30m to 50m barrels of oil to the US that will then be sold at market prices. There are few details on how rapidly this will take place, but the key message for oil traders is that Trump’s move to take charge of Venezuela means more supplies of crude are likely to hit global markets.

While a substantial revival in the Latin American country’s output will take plenty of time and money, Trump’s announcement is a reminder that the US’s actions signal more crude will probably be coming out of Venezuela than has been the case.

We have been consistently of the view since June’25 that Brent is headed towards $50 levels. The current US administration single largest focus is on lower crude prices so that inflation remains low & rates can be brought down. Some of our previous opinion pieces detail these thoughts:

4th Jan 2026

https://macro-spectrum.com/opinion/us-strike-on-venezuela-is-a-crude-derivative

5th Oct 2025

https://macro-spectrum.com/opinion/to-russia-with-love

6th July 2025

https://macro-spectrum.com/opinion/the-return-of-saudi-barrels

3rd May 2025

https://macro-spectrum.com/opinion/crude-might-fall-some-mor

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