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ADP’s data show US NFP likely weak for Nov’25

ADMIN || 4th December 2025

US companies shed payrolls in November by the most since early 2023, adding to concerns about a more pronounced weakening in the labor market.

Private-sector payrolls decreased by 32,000, according to ADP Research data released Wednesday. Payrolls have now fallen four times in the last six months. This was last seen during Covid days. Granted, the numbers aren’t as large as back then, but it nonetheless signals a pretty weak labor market and tepid momentum in the economy. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 10,000 gain.

Today’s weak ADP report risks heightening concerns of a more rapid deterioration in the labor market ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final policy meeting of the year next week. It could hold more sway than usual as one of the few up-to-date reports officials will have by then, as the shutdown delayed the government’s November jobs report.

Policymakers will also be keenly paying attention to other data sources. Initial applications for unemployment benefits are still relatively low, while employment declined slightly in the Fed’s latest Beige Book survey of regional business contacts.

The November jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, originally due Dec. 5, will now come out Dec. 16 as data collection was halted during the record-long shutdown. That report will also include nonfarm payrolls for October since BLS is skipping a full release for that month, as it couldn’t collect certain data retroactively.

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