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US EMPLOYMENT IS WEAK, IF ONLY NFP WERE TO BE RELEASED

ADMIN || 7th November 2025

In two alternative private employment data released yesterday, US employment looked getting weaker by the day.

In the first data, Revelio Labs Oct employment data showed that economy lost 9,100 jobs in October. This was after showing economy added 33,000 jobs in Sep the month prior.

The decline in employment is driven primarily by a large decline in employment in the Government sector, which lost 22,200 jobs in October; and the Retail sector, which lost 8,500 jobs. On the other hand, the Education and health services sector continued to show relative strength, adding 22,000 jobs in October.

In the 2nd data, Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc showed that US companies announced the most job cuts for any October in more than two decades as artificial intelligence reshapes industries and cost-cutting accelerates. Companies announced 153,074 job cuts last month, almost triple the number during the same month last year and driven by the technology and warehousing sectors. It’s the most for any October since 2003.

In the absence of monthly NonFarm Payroll data, ADP, Revelio Labs and Challenger job cuts data provide some picture of US employment. Though ISM services employment & ISM manufacturing employment were strong along with ADP, Revelio labs & Challenger job cuts are weak. We have pointed out in our premium opinion piece published 1st Nov that our own estimate for Oct NFP is -25k if it were to be released.

https://www.macro-spectrum.com/opinion/no-us-employment-data-means-no-dec-cut

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