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Economic Data Release

WEAK CHINA PMIs SHOW EXTENT OF SLOWDOWN

ADMIN || 4th December 2025

China’s latest PMI prints delivered another clear signal that the world’s second-largest economy is losing momentum into year-end, with both official and private-sector gauges sliding deeper into contraction and adding to the drag on the country’s equities.

Both the official and private-sector manufacturing gauges remain in contraction for November, with the RatingDog index slipping below 50 for the first time in four months. The services side is no longer cushioning the slowdown. The National Bureau of Statistics’ non-manufacturing gauge slipped back below 50 to 49.5, reversing the temporary lift seen around October’s holiday period. With that figure now below 50 for the first time since late 2022, the momentum behind China’s post-Covid normalization looks increasingly fragile.

For markets, the data highlight that China’s domestic slowdown is becoming more entrenched just as external demand faces its own challenges, limiting the economy’s ability to rely on exports as a stabilizer. The softening in PMIs also aligns with the tone in Chinese equities, where the CSI 300 has slipped roughly 5% from its October high. Without firmer evidence of momentum, the backdrop offers little to counter the persistent drag in China-linked risk assets. Until PMIs find a floor, macro risks are likely to remain skewed to the downside into early 2026.

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