THE WEEK AHEAD ECONOMIC DATA RELEASE 30TH NOV 2025 EX OIL COMMODITIES ARE SET FOR MORE UPSIDE IN CY26 CHINA IS IRREVERSABLY DECOUPLING FROM US: THINK 2027, THINK TAIWAN IS THIS DECEMBER DIFFERENT FOR DOLLAR THE WEEK AHEAD ECONOMIC DATA RELEASE 23RD NOV 2025 DUTCH PENSION REFORMS: THE NEXT LONG END WORRY NVIDIA: WINNER TAKES IT ALL UK AUTMN BUDGET: PREVIEW BUY 10YR UK GILTS AGAINST SELL 10YR GERMAN BUNDS BUY 10YR UK GILTS SELL 10YR UST BUY S&P 500
Macrospectrum
Subscribe icon
Economic Data Release

Evidence Shows US Employment Weakening

ADMIN || 7th October 2025

Employment at small businesses declined by 48,400 jobs in September, according to data compiled by software provider Intuit, owner of Quickbooks. Using anonymized data from 533,000 small businesses to track employment, Intuit found employment decreased in 19 of 20 states, across all eight US regions and in all 12 sectors tracked.

Leisure and hospitality saw the fastest and largest decline of any sector. The Rocky Mountain region (Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Utah, and Wyoming) had the fastest decline in percentage terms, while states in the Southeast (Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia) saw the largest decrease, losing 8,500 jobs. Overall, the decline in employment was the largest since February.

Even ADP estimated that US payrolls fell by 32k in September. ADP employment has slowed sharply recently, contracting in 3 out of last 4 months. And private payrolls have tended to be revised towards ADP in recent years.

Even ADP shows labor weakness is being driven primarily by small and medium businesses, large hanging in there better.

And recent slowing has been in both goods & services.

Chicago Fed data also show layoffs and other separations trending higher.

To summarise, the labor situation in US is worsening only. The fine balance of low hiring and low firing is likely to topple soon due to more firings. This will get compounded further if the US shutdown remains longer than a fortnight. We believe the Oct NFP is anyways a -ve no between -25k to -50k. This will be because of roughly 150k federal workers had accepted deferred resignation offers and, of those 150k, 100k would leave the government at the end of September. This suggests that October NFP (scheduled to print in early November) is likely to be weighed down by 100k due to DOGE-led deferred resignations, and we expect the additional negative impact of 50k to be reflected in subsequent months.

Legal Disclaimer:

Trading foreign exchange/commodities/equities/bonds on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange/commodities/equities you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange/commodities/equities trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Read More