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Economic Data Release

ADP’S JOB DATA FLIP FLOP CONTINUES

ADMIN || 12th November 2025

ADP’s weekly data showed private-sector payrolls falling through late October a sharp contrast to its monthly report that pointed to job gains.

ADP showed that US companies shed 11,250 jobs per week on average in the four weeks ended Oct. 25. The labor market slowed in the second half of October, compared with earlier in the month, and employers announced the most job cuts for any October in more than two decades. But ADP’s most recent monthly report, released last week, showed private-sector payrolls increased 42,000 in October after declining in the prior two months. The split underscores both the data distortions from the prolonged government shutdown and the growing sense that the labor market is once again losing momentum.

Mounting layoff announcements reinforce that message. Challenger data from last week showed the most October job cuts in over two decades, led by technology, warehousing, and corporate restructurings at firms like Target, Amazon, and UPS. While recent months have been defined by a “no hire, no fire” equilibrium, that stability is giving way to something softer call it “no hire, some fire.” Employers that once froze hiring are now quietly trimming headcount.

The street is now changing its tune; Goldman Sachs now expects a 50,000 decline in October payrolls, whenever we get them. It’s important to flag the risk that the official jobs data when it finally arrives will be unreliable given the disrupted collection period. The shutdown has certainly muddied the labor picture, leaving rates reliant on patchwork indicators like ADP and Challenger to gauge direction. But even through the noise, the trajectory looks weaker.

Our own view on employment as per our opinion piece published on 1st Nov as below is that Oct NFP is that if it were to be released on 5th Nov as scheduled, it might have shown UR (Unemployment Ratio) at 4.5% with headline NFP at -25k.

https://macro-spectrum.com/opinion/no-us-employment-data-means-no-dec-cut

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